pebblewriter

Author: pebblewriter

  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 7, 2023

    Futures are off sharply ahead of the open…

    …as AAPL melts down on news that China will ban iPhone use by government workers.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 6, 2023

    Futures have slipped about 10 points on quiet trading.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 5, 2023

    Futures are off moderately this morning on low holiday volume.

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  • Jobs Friday

    Futures are up sharply on a rise in the unemployment rate and a beat on payrolls.

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  • PCE On the Rise

    After falling for months, YoY PCE ticked higher in July: 3.3% versus 3.0% in June. Excluding food and energy, the print was 4.2% versus 4.1% in June.The data pared some of the overnight ramp, with futures easing lower as we approach the opening bell.

    In other economic news, personal spending (0.8% MoM) rose faster than expected while income (0.2% MoM) grew slower than expected – not an optimal combination when trying to avoid a recession.

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  • GDP Revised Lower

    Second quarter GDP was revised downward from 2.4% to 2.1%, providing a much needed boost to bulls hoping for another Fed pause. Of course, it also provides bears with some evidence of an economic slowdown.

    Futures have been hovering around flat all morning.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 29, 2023

    Futures are off slightly in advance of consumer confidence data due out at 10 ET.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 28, 2023

    Futures are up sharply this morning following the Jackson Hole rally, breaking back out of the falling red channel again.

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  • Powell Back in the Spotlight

    It’s been lonely maintaining that rates would continue to rise over the past 10 months. As we noted in Decision Time:

    “TNX…looks likely to test 47.55 after it digests recent gains.”

    After the 10Y topped its Oct 21 highs, folks started coming around. Now it’s looking fairly obvious.The only question is whether Powell will fess up to the coming rise in CPI and, therefore interest rates, in his speech at Jackson Hole (1005 ET.)

    As we discussed a few days ago [see: Interesting Goings On in Currencies] the cross currents in rates and currencies are problematic for the market. We saw ample evidence yesterday when futures gave up a strong opening  – breaking out of a well-formed channel only to close deep in the red.

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  • Update on COMP: Aug 25, 2023

    In our last major analysis of COMP [see: Oct 13, 2022 Update] we noted that COMP hadd reversed within 1% of our upside target in 2021 and had subsequently dropped to within 0.3% of our 10,122 target.

    Since then, it’s been a battle. COMP finally rebounded to our 13,873 target at the yellow .618 Fibonacci retracement…only to reverse at the .707 Fib at 14,418. Since then, it has been on a wild ride, giving up 2.7% yesterday after failing to break back above its 50-day moving average.

    Its rebound at its Aug 2022 highs was so convincing, we had our doubts as to our 12,828 downside target. It’s now looking like a distinct possibility again.

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