Futures are off modestly after SPX set new highs in a last minute spurt higher yesterday. Housing starts decreased sharply, falling 9.8% in January after a sharp increase in December.

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Futures are up modestly as the algo meltup should allow SPX to achieve new all-time highs.

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January retail sales tumbled to a negative 0.9% versus the positive 0.1% expected and last month’s +0.7%. Combined with hotter than expected inflation data the past two days, it’s not a good look for equities.

Futures, however, are ignoring the data – which will only worsen with the effects expected from increasing tariffs.

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PPI came in at 0.4% MoM versus 0.3% consensus, confirming yesterday’s hotter than expected inflation outlook.

Futures initially dipped, though not as much as yesterday. But, like yesterday, VIX was quickly hammered back down to recent lows, reviving equities before the opening bell.

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Jan CPI rose 3% YoY and 0.5% MoM, in line with our expectations but higher than consensus. Core CPI rose even more, reaching 3.3% YoY.  PPI will be released tomorrow.

Futures are off sharply.

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GC’s approach to our 3012.80 target from last April [see: Update on Gold and Silver, April 17 2024] reminds us that we’re not the only analysts concerned about tomorrow’s CPI print.

As we’ve discussed for the past several months, Jan CPI should surprise to the upside. Will it be enough of a surprise to disrupt the euphoria surrounding stocks?

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Futures are up moderately as algos react to a VIX smackdown that more than offsets the latest tariff troubles and fading corporate euphoria. It remains to be seen whether the market can hold up after higher than expected inflation is reported on Wednesday.

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Nonfarm payrolls for January came in at 143K versus 175K expected, though average hourly earnings were +0.5% versus estimates of +0.3%. This was on top of a disappointing outlook for AMZN, currently off almost 3% in the after hours.

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Futures are up modestly after mixed economic data: hotter than expected productivity and unit labor, but higher than expected initial claims.

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Last night was perhaps the strangest yet of Trump 2.0. The US is going to somehow “take over” Gaza and develop it as a resort? Right…

This was on top of disappointing earnings for both Alphabet and AMD. So, it’s only fitting that our power is out this morning too.

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