Following days of speculation, Israel attacked Iran, killing three of Iran’s most powerful leaders and bombing multiple nuclear, missile and military targets. Oil prices shot up over 10%, bolstering inflationary fears and neutralizing Trump’s argument for a Fed rate cut. The last time CL broke out of its triangle, stocks fell nearly 5%.Futures initially fell nearly 2% overnight, but have since rebounded to a 1% loss. Though the State Department initially disavowed any knowledge of or assistance in the planning of the attack, Trump’s latest comments have called that into question – increasing the odds that the US will be drawn into a kinetic conflict.

“Iran should have listened to me when I said — you know, I gave them, I don’t know if you know but I gave them a 60-day warning and today is day 61,” he told CNN. “They should now come to the table to make a deal before it’s too late.”

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VIX futures initially surged over 20%, but were systematically hammered overnight and are now only 6% higher. Both VX and VIX are back above their SMA200s. It they can maintain these levels, ES and SPX should at least backtest their SMA200s.

The USD gained overnight, clawing back all of Thursday’s losses.

Note that GC is again threatening to break out above significant resistance at 3344, while SI is still creeping up toward out 38.63 target.

WTI is now 30% above its May lows, while RB is about 17% higher – driving the 10Y back up to yesterday’s highs. Iran is not a major supplier to the world oil market, but prices had begun to reflect expectations of Iran contributing to supply.