It’s that time again. After fading Friday’s fake news trade deal, it’s time to plot out the next few weeks of our analog.
Futures are off mildly in what should be the next to the last hurrah before a substantial correction.
But, as has often been the case lately, VIX is threatening to dash the bears’ hopes — this time with a plunge below its SMA200. Can the bears finally maul the algos?
The only person who seems all that excited about the trade deal is Trump. Mnuchin was completely unconvincing and couldn’t even muster a lie on CNBC this morning. And, Liu He practically rolled his eyes during Trump’s self-congratulatory announcement on Friday. No one was fooled, and hopefully no soy bean farmers have rushed out to buy new acreage as Trump suggested.
continued for members…
First, the revised path forward as suggested by our analog… The first chart is the mild version of the early Nov payoff.
This one shows the potential if it should emulate what happened in 2015. 
As a reminder…
As mentioned above, VIX is in position to ruin things for the bears — with the latest incursion into the red Flag Pattern and the purple Flag Pattern.
But, USDJPY put in a nice topping candle (so far) which has backtested the SMA200.
And, CL/RB both appear to have finally let loose. If they break below their SMA10s, the game should be on. CL’s next test will be the 50.52 horizontal support…
…while RB should test 1.50 before making a beeline for 1.4277.
UPDATE: 3:35 PM
Not much happening as we approach the close. VIX has prevented ES/SPX from declining more than a few points.
