With SPX up 2.6% on the month, May qualifies as a win (assuming it holds 2648).  But, it was an ugly win.  Stock buybacks, ramp jobs in oil and gas, timely reversals in USDJPY and VIX — everything but the kitchen sink went into the mix to turn in a positive performance.

While a more serious downturn was postponed, the problems facing the market have not gone away.  It’s hard to shake the feeling that the past two weeks, in particular, were merely about letting the major players get their ducks in a row before a resumption of February and March’s turmoil.

The yield curve continues to be a problem……as do oil and gas prices and the inflation they’ve stirred up.If May’s positive performance was indeed bogus, I nominate TSLA as the stock of the month.  Despite a string of daily technology fails – some of which killed people – TSLA remains above technical support and is even threatening to break out.

continued for members…

SPX seems destined to plumb lower prices, though there has been a concerted effort to keep the index above its 2.24 extension.

ES, on the other hand, has had a hell of a time getting back above its.Notes are doing just fine……as TNX continues to appear weak.DXY has finally reversed……which gives gold bugs something to hope for.Updated CL and RB targets.  RB has seen a backtest, while CL still has a bit further to go.  Remember, the June 2017 range was even lower. VIX has clear sailing up to 22.27 if it hurries.  Otherwise, it could easily top April’s high of 25.72.  If I’m wrong, and something happens to send stocks higher, it should show up first in VIX — with a plunge to 11.64 or lower being the threat.I have to be out of the office for a few hours today.  I should be back around 2-2:30.

UPDATE:  3:40 PM

It certainly feels like the end of a month/quarter/OPEX.  A nice downdraft that was stopped in its tracks, primarily by VIX.  Will we close above 2703.62?

CL making headway back towards our target.  But, RB is acting less eager to drop further.  But, it did hold below the purple TL – a backtest implying lower.USDJPY continues to be the best argument for holding 2703 or even trudging higher.  A breakout up to the .618 is an option if TPTB want to protect the 2703 support. However, the most manipulated of the bunch, the NKD, is safely back inside the falling white channel – even backtested it. I would be shocked if DJIA doesn’t take a run at its SMA200 again in the new month. I’ve redrawn ES’ channel and it works pretty well as parallel to the main channel.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t offer much more clarity about next steps.  I continue to favor the SMA200 target (at least.) VIX pulls its usual trickery.