Ambush Ahead

SPX and ES got within a point of our neckline targets yesterday before the algos panicked.

It’s not that the necklines or SMA200s won’t get tagged – keep an eye on the close — it’s just that not enough wildebeest had gathered at the watering hole.  With VIX safely back down below its SMA200, this shouldn’t be a problem for long.

Targets that were tagged yesterday included CL, RBOB and TNX.  Targets yet to be tagged include USDJPY, COMP and ZN.

Should be an interesting day ahead!

continued for members

CL and RB overshot their initial targets and rebounded.  Given that RB needs to hold its backtest, this might be all we get — but I wouldn’t count on it. USDJPY is about halfway to target……while DXY is still deciding.  Given EURUSD is frozen in fear, DXY might just continue sideways a while longer. VIX will decline until SPX reaches its target — probably just shy of its SMA10.The equity picture…

It’s interesting that VIX hasn’t really participated in this decline all that much.  It hasn’t needed to, given CL/RB and USDJPY’s plunges.  I see no reason for this to chance.  I believe they’ll continue to lead stocks lower.

COMP continues to promise more downside.

I’ve been working this morning on bond charts, so I’ll save those for that post.