Futures are up slightly, buoyed by in-line retail sales and much stronger than expected Empire State Manufacturing.  Retail sales increased 0.5% MoM and 3.9% YoY, both in line. Ex-auto, sales rose 0.3%. Remember that retail sales are not adjusted for inflation, so the inflation adjusted print was considerably lower.

Speaking of inflation, import prices rose 0.4% versus expectations of flat. Export prices were negligibly higher at 0.1%. U Mich sentiment is due out at 10am ET.

Empire State Manufacturing came in at 11.9, much higher than 1.8 expectations. All in all, this morning’s data doesn’t help support the September rate cut scenario.

continued for members… (more…)

PPI soared by the most in three years, throwing cold water on speculation that the Fed could cut rates next month. The index jumped 0.9% MoM and 3.3% YoY – up from 2.3% in June. Core PPI rose 0.6%, the biggest increase in over three years. Core rose 2.8% YoY versus 2.3% in June.

Not surprisingly, futures tanked on the print as hopes of a rate cut in September are finally having to cope with the effects of Trump’s tariff policy.

continued for members… (more…)

Equities pushed to new highs by the close yesterday, aided by another 90-day reprieve on China’s tariffs and, of course, a 10%+ smackdown in VIX.

I have to catch a plane, so will post more later today. In the meantime, our upside targets remain unchanged.

Following the recent takeover of BLS data by the Oval Office, we’re less trusting than ever of headline CPI. But, for what it’s worth, the print came in on target: +0.2% MoM and a repeat of June’s 2.7% YoY. Core CPI ticked higher to 3.1% versus 2.9% prior and 3.0% expected.

The algos believe what they’re told, so futures popped up to the .886 Fibonacci retracement on the “news.” Just to be on the safe side, Trump postponed China tariffs by another 90 days.

continued for members… (more…)

Futures are essentially flat ahead of the open as traders await important inflation data and digest the latest wrinkle in trade: the 15% of sales that NVDA and AMD will pay the US government in order to sell AI chips to China.

continued for members... (more…)

Equities are up moderately again today, primarily on AAPL’s decision to buckle under to Trump. Whether or not it’s wise in the long run, it’s a political winner in the short run. The stock is up sharply in the last three days.

continued for members… (more…)

As a reminder, I will be posting only weekly from July 9 through August 6.

♦ ♦ ♦

Nonfarm payrolls expanded by only 73,000 in July. But, it was June’s revision from 147,000 to 14,000 and May’s from 125,000 to 19,000 that shocked investors. There should now be no doubt that a recession has begun.

Rather than acknowledge that his tariffs are responsible, Trump responded to the weak data by shooting the messenger, firing widely respected BLS Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on charges of being partisan.

Equities didn’t take well to news of the economic slowdown nor the realization that the White House will be providing future “data” releases to McEntarfer’s replacement.

ES completed the backtest of its former highs.

continued for members… (more…)