Retail sales and Empire State Mfg both came in worse than expected, meaning there’s an improvement to the odds of a fed rate cut – or so the thinking goes.

Markets were off a bit over the weekend, due in part to Bessent’s comparison of current conditions to 2006-2007, but the weak economic data brought futures back to flat.

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We’ve seen countless overnight rallies over the past month. Some of them carried over into the regular sessions, but most of them were faded.

Yesterday’s plunge took SPX all the way to a key channel midline and Fib retracement and was followed by a 50-pt overnight ramp job, leaving ES at a key overhead resistance. With a Fed meeting coming up next week and a shutdown (potentially) averted, does this bounce have legs?continued for members… (more…)

Ordinarily, investors might prefer lower CPI and PPI. But, so far, the market hasn’t reacted well. Why not?

Sure, lower prices might give the Fed room to reduce interest rates and thereby goose the stock market. But, you have to ask “why” prices aren’t going up as quickly as before.

Is it because corporations don’t have pricing power? Is it because consumers aren’t liquid enough to shop with abandon? Or, maybe the lower data aren’t really indicative of what consumers are seeing in the supermarket?

In any case, futures got a very small bump after Feb PPI data were released this morning. This follows a nice bump from yesterday’s CPI that was immediately faded as investors still realize that Trump’s tariff policies are, as CNBC economics reporter Steve Liesman labeled them, insane.

The decline in inflation is exactly what our gas model suggested would happen. If gas prices were to remain level, we would expect CPI to continue falling.

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CPI drifted lower in February, coming in below consensus at 0.2% MoM and 2,8% YoY. Core was also 0.2% MoM and registered 3.1% YoY. The print was in line with our model, which also suggested a bounce yesterday, Futures, initially up 1.5%, are indicating a still strong 1% higher.

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Futures are flat after another ugly day left multiple indices at their next downside targets.

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Just about every investor I know has owned NVDA for a while and has made a pretty penny on it. So, it pained me to deliver the charts’ warning back on Feb 27. From NVDA: Good Enough?

Judging from its price action overnight, NVDA’s earnings and outlook were good enough. As we approach the open, however, it’s obvious that it hasn’t made new highs just yet – not a good sign… Remember, if it breaks down, NVDA has downside to 104.

Seven trading days, a further 20% loss, and a completed Head & Shoulders pattern later, we’re only a few points away from that price target. What happens if 104 doesn’t hold?

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Futures are tumbling again following a substantial bounce on Friday. China has issued retaliatory tariffs, adding to the chaos Trump’s trade war has unleashed.

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Treasury secretary Scott Bessent explained the market’s recent volatility this morning:

“The market and the economy have just become hooked, and we’ve become addicted to this government spending,” Bessent said. “There’s going to be a detox period.”

Thank goodness. We were worried it had something to do with the general chaos emanating from Washington: weakening economic conditions amidst high inflation (aka stagflation), the on again/off again tariffs, and the absolute cratering of America’s global reputation.

The futures were all over the map following this morning’s nonfarm payroll report. The unemployment rate ticked higher, even though the government layoffs haven’t even registered yet.

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Perhaps it’s fitting that the largest reported trade imbalance in history takes place as Trump has instituted massive new trade barriers.

The market has lost its luster once again, this time plunging instead of ramping overnight.

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DXY reached our 105 target overnight…and is still dropping.While this reflects the sharp drop in interest rates (thank you equity correction), the US is still a net importer. So a drop in the value of the dollar means higher inflation. Not exactly a good look when folks are justifiably worried about stagflation.

Speaking of which, the ADP jobs report was plenty ugly this morning: +77K versus 145K consensus and 186K prior.There aren’t many companies that enjoy the kind of chaos that characterize the early days of Trump’s second term (the first was chaotic enough.)  It’s no surprise that economic uncertainty is being reflected in the market. Are we winning yet?

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