Charts I’m Watching: Mar 6, 2025

Perhaps it’s fitting that the largest reported trade imbalance in history takes place as Trump has instituted massive new trade barriers.

The market has lost its luster once again, this time plunging instead of ramping overnight.

continued for members

SPX’s SMA200 is obviously support. It’s also a backtest of the IH&S neckline. So, if the manipulation is successful, the market should ultimately bounce here – even if the fundamentals and chart patterns suggest much greater downside.

The problem is that the fundamentals might have finally caught up with the market – meaning that the multiples being applied are finally being recognized as excessive.

The triple top on VIX is still intact. It seems that EURUSD should pull back here…

…and USDJPY has reached potential support.But, DXY doesn’t look quite ready to bounce. CL and RB continue to look weak, with OPEC raising production and an apparent thawing of Russian relations potentially unleashing more oil on the market.

TNX has put in another respectable bounce, probably reflecting the German monetary/fiscal developments. Stay tuned…