Retail sales and Empire State Mfg both came in worse than expected, meaning there’s an improvement to the odds of a fed rate cut – or so the thinking goes.

Markets were off a bit over the weekend, due in part to Bessent’s comparison of current conditions to 2006-2007, but the weak economic data brought futures back to flat.

continued for members…

Note that VX is on the brink of a second breakdown which would buoy stocks. Currencies are mostly flat. But, I’m keeping an eye on the divergence of DXY and the 10Y. It perhaps speaks to US isolationism?

Meanwhile, though CL and RB are both 1%+ higher, the 10Y is slightly lower. The fear trade hasn’t gone away.

We get a lot of economic data this week along with the next FOMC rate decision on Wednesday.

Stay tuned…