ES came within 6 points of a key Fibonacci level on Monday, and has more recently been making minor pullbacks to test its rapidly rising 10-day moving average. The more important test will likely come next week when CPI and PPI are released.
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As a reminder, we will not be posting March 4 through March 6.
Trade safe, and we’ll see you all on the other side!
We’ve waited a very long time for SPX’s 50-DMA to reach a great spot for a small pullback. It’s finally here.
Will the market cooperate?
NOTE: I will be out of the office between March 4-6, returning on March 7.
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January headline PCE registered a 0.3% increase MoM (0.4% Core) which was in line with most estimates. YoY, headline PCE rose 2.4% versus 2.6% in December, while core PCE rose 2.8%, down from 2.9% in December.
In other economic data, personal income rose to 1.0% MoM from 0.3% in December and personal spending rose at a 0.2% rate versus 0.7% in December.
Algos cheered the data, with futures swinging from a moderate loss to a moderate gain in seconds.
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Futures are off moderately in the lead up to tomorrow’s important PCE print.
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BTCUSD came within 126 of an important Fib level that could represent significant overhead resistance. Traders would do well to limit their exposure here.
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Durable goods ex transportation fell by 0.3% in January, slightly more than expected. Futures rose slightly on the print, but are essentially flat ahead of the important consumer confidence reading.
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Futures are flat ahead of the open as traders place their bets on Thursday’s PCE print.
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Stocks rode NVDA’s coattails back into their rising channels yesterday, right back to the top of already overstretched chart patterns.
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As we stated in yesterday’s update…
…the downside case would be damaged considerably if NVDA were to come out with stellar earnings and outlook that boosted ES back into the rising yellow channel.
NVDA’s stellar earnings and outlook did, in fact, boost NVDA back into its previously broken channel.
The resulting algo spasm, however, boosted ES back to but not into its own broken channel. It has stalled right there on the brink, leaving both bulls and bears scratching their heads.
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