pebblewriter

Year: 2024

  • Another Test

    Stocks have done nothing but melt up since we identified the Inverted Head & Shoulders buy signal back on Dec 11 at SPX 4604. Now, 15.3% later, stocks face another important test.continued for members…  (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: May 16, 2024

    CPI came in a little below expectations yesterday, meaning the meltup is continuing toward our upside targets.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: May 12, 2024

    Greetings from Anegada, British Virgin Islands. We continue in vacation mode, with the next post planned for Thursday, May 16.

    The markets continue to track our forecast, with breakouts in equities and currencies and a breakdown in VIX. Oil and gas continue to hint at a breakdown, buy this remains a wild card.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: May 9, 2024

    Since the channel breakout and push above the SMA50, ES has been playing defense.

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  • Fourth Time a Charm?

    This is the fourth time in a row that ES has pushed back into the rising channel from which it previously broke down. This one is more important, however, as it has the 50-day moving average in its sights.

    As we discussed last week, all the stars are aligned should the algos wish to pursue our upside targets.

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  • On the Brink…Again

    Already elevated on AAPL’s announcement of a historic buyback, futures popped on a weaker than expected jobs report.

    The only problem is that this ramp puts them right back at the top of the channel which has prompted three previous tumbles. Will this one be any different?

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  • Don’t Forget About Oil

    Powell might insist that the word “stagflation” is never mentioned at FOMC meetings, but inflation and labor costs are still hot, and the latest GDP print is still hanging over us like a wet rag.

    Nevertheless, the algos are content to take their cues from VIX and currencies which, at the moment at least, are ramping stocks higher.Perhaps more importantly, though, WTI has fallen through our 79.42 target which in the absence of a wider conflict in the Middle East creates a real opportunity for lower inflation.continued for members… (more…)

  • FOMC Day: May 1, 2024

    Stocks had a very bad day yesterday as both algos and carbon-based investors contemplated a market without a Fed backstop of lower interest rates.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 30, 2024

    After another round of hot economic data, the rate cuts on which this market has depended continue to look less and less likely. Housing prices resumed their acceleration and labor costs are rising faster than expected, leaving many to wonder whether we’ll get any rate cuts in 2024.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 29, 2024

    Futures are up moderately this morning as the Street contemplates an upbeat AMZN outlook, uncertain AAPL prospects, and Wednesday’s FOMC decision.

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