pebblewriter

Year: 2022

  • Charts I’m Watching: Oct 31, 2022

    Futures are off about 0.50% as we approach Wednesday’s FOMC decision and a slew of important economic data.

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  • No Pivot

    September PCE held steady at 0.3% MoM and 6.2% YoY while personal spending came in hotter than expected. This should officially close the door on any speculation regarding a Fed pivot.

    Coming after disappointing earnings and guidance from the largest, most important corporations, one might expect at least a slight decline in the markets. One would be wrong. Futures are back to flat as we approach the open because VIX-driven algos are still in charge and VIX has been driven lower.

    VIX futures have been playing cat and mouse with their SMA200 since yesterday…

    …and the index will join in shortly.This pattern has been playing out daily since Oct 13, when VIX’s breakdown stopped stocks’ decline in their tracks.

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  • Q3 GDP Beats Estimates

    Q3 GDP came in at 2.6%, beating the 2.3% consensus and of course Q2’s -0.6%. While good news for the economy, it does little to advance the narrative that the Fed might be ready to pare future rate hikes.

    Nevertheless, VIX fell… …so futures rose slightly on the news.continued for members… (more…)

  • This Round to the Algos

    Despite some of the market heavyweights taking big hits from earnings/outlooks (Microsoft MSFT, -7.72%, Alphabet GOOG, -7.86%, Texas Instruments TXN, -6.41%) futures are off less than 1%.

    Don’t look for a fundamental justification. This rally, like most this year, was built on VIX and currency manipulation.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Oct 25, 2022

    Futures are off modestly in quiet trading as we approach the open. continued for members… (more…)

  • Decision Time

    ES rallied 7.3% off the Oct 13 lows to tag our target at the white channel midline – also the 20% correction mark.

    This is the same target we added on Oct 14 [see: It Wasn’t Oversold] as it’s an important line in the sand.

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  • More OPEX Games

    With over $2 trillion in equity options expiring today, is it any wonder that in the past hour the futures market went from this…

    …to this? continued for members… (more…)

  • Another Good News is Bad News Story

    Unemployment claims came in lower than expected, further dashing the hopes of those praying for a Fed pivot.  Meanwhile, the OPEX levitation continues.

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  • Housing Takes Another Hit

    It’s no wonder homebuilder confidence fell so sharply……since they knew about the decline occurring in permits and starts. This is the worst print since the depths of the pandemic in June 20 and is precisely what we warned about in July 2021 [see: Time to Sell Your Home?]

    Recall that in the 19% house price correction between 2007-2009, the peak in starts preceded the peak in prices by 14 months. But, prices had already dipped lower – between Jan-Jul 2006.

    The Fed saw the writing on the wall, halting the steady rate hike which had started in June 2003 at 1.0%.  But, it was too late. The unwind had started, and prices would drop until Jan 2009 – much longer than that for many homeowners.

    Futures had already rolled over, but this was more fuel to the fire.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Oct 18, 2022

    Another OPEX week overnight ramp…same cast of characters, same outcome.

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