You would never think from looking at the WTI and RBOB charts that there’s an energy crisis of any kind.
CL has now spent a month below its 200-day moving average, failing for the 8th time to retake the important resistance.
And, RB has broken below its October highs and isn’t far from its May 2018 highs – as in when a gallon of gas ran $2.80.
These drops will obviously play into CPI data for August. But, it won’t be enough to satisfy the Fed’s inflation goals.
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ES bounced off its 50-day yesterday, though the bounce is losing steam as we approach the open.
Circumstances are very different from 2021, when you could set your watch by 50-day bounces.
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Markets finally got the message. Or, maybe Powell finally put it plainly enough: there will be more pain before the Fed eases.
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Powell threw cold water on the market’s optimistic outlook this morning, suggesting that aggressive tightening will continue.
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Futures are up modestly on very light volume in advance of the insights expected from the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting.
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Futures are flat after enjoying a modest overnight ramp.
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Yesterday marked the second day in a row of sharp declines in the equity markets following the 200-day moving average backtest and the passing of OPEX.
There’s more where that came from.
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Futures are off sharply this morning, reflecting the lack of support behind the runup to the last two options expirations.
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BTC is off over 7% this morning. It has spent the past two months in a flag pattern – a small channel which interrupts what in this case was a strong downtrend. It’s normally a continuation pattern, meaning that the downtrend is expected to continue following the interruption.
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Looking at the bounce since Jun 16, I can’t help but think of Chuck Yeager’s ill-fated journey into space.
Futures are up very slightly this morning, fixated on maintaining prices through tomorrow’s massive option expiration.
VIX: an excellent example of maintaining an even strain.
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