ES bounced off its 50-day yesterday, though the bounce is losing steam as we approach the open.

Circumstances are very different from 2021, when you could set your watch by 50-day bounces.

continued for members…As we noted yesterday, ES and SPX are slightly out of sync. While ES saw a very noticeable, bearish 10/20 cross yesterday, SPX just barely eked out its own and has yet to reach its SMA50. Speaking of crosses, VIX’s SMA10 is now decidedly above its SMA20 and it has a chance to bounce off its SMA200 today. As we discussed yesterday, EURUSD officially tagged our next downside target and has to decide whether to rebound or collapse.

USDJPY is still inching higher, but faces serious Fib resistance at both 139.43 and 142.44. Bottom line, DXY’s future is very much up in the air – though my gut tells me EURUSD is going to break down, which will matter much more than USDJPY’s.CL withdrew from the SMA200 yet again. And, RB is getting killed this morning, with our target and potential support just below at 2.52.This has allowed TNX to hold the line – though it’s still a very risky bet.

Stay tuned…