Month: January 2019

  • FOMC: Now What?

    Anyone playing the “patient” drinking game while watching Powell’s press conference has quite a hangover this morning.  To no one’s surprise, the FOMC statement and Powell’s comments were dovish. The algos were quite pleased, rewarding the Fed’s awareness that inflation is no longer a problem.  In the wake of the oil and gas crash, the new problem is deflation.  How the Fed handles it this go ’round will determine what to expect from stocks.

    If you’ll permit a small pun, the bond market is well ahead of the curve.

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  • FOMC Preview

    Everyone has their own opinion about what the FOMC will announce today.  Let’s see what the charts are saying.

    The 2s10s continues to tighten, closing yesterday at 13.9 bps — extremely close to a .886 retracement of the rise from -0.19 to 2.91 between 2006 and 2011. Is the Fibonacci .886 important?

    It mattered a great deal in Feb 2006 when the 2s10s reversed very close to an .886 retracement of the runup from -0.52 to 2.75.  And, as we’ve discussed many times, it’s not the flattening of the yield curve that deflates stocks.  It’s the rapid steepening.

    The 2s10s is also sitting at the bottom of a falling channel and a falling wedge — both of which also suggest a reversal. Having said that, the 2s10s recently broke trend to the downside again.  Per our yield curve model, a drop through the yellow TL spells trouble for stocks.  A breakout above the red TL is also bearish.

    About the only bullish move would be to consolidate through late February without making new lows or breaking out.  By then, it will have to choose one or the other.Both the 2Y and the 10Y have been sliding since oil and gas prices peaked on Oct 3.  Our premise, which proved correct, was that oil and gas would slide sharply to prevent inflation and interest rates from pushing to a level that upsets the markets: 3% for CPI and the 10Y.With YoY comparisons in gas prices (the most volatile and immediate impact on CPI) going negative, CPI should be much closer to 1% than 2% in the next month or so. Without at least a minor recovery in oil and gas prices, CPI could fall to or even below 0%.

    As a result, the FOMC obviously cannot justify further rate hikes.  In the absence of a recovery in oil and gas prices, there is a much better chance of a rate cut.  All else being equal, the decision will likely rest on whether the oil and gas price declines persist or prove to be transitory.

    Central banks have managed the fallout quite well so far.  The EURUSD, which has looked likely to bounce up to its SMA200 ever since October, has instead waited patiently for the SMA200 to come to it.As a result, DXY has held up remarkably well… …and, TNX is well behind the curve in reflecting plunging CPI.This has produced a nice bounce in ZN since our bottom call in October, with more upside likely ahead.The trick will be how to accommodate such a move without trashing stocks.

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  • Update on AAPL: Jan 29, 2019

    AAPL has bounced about 10% since reaching our 144.48 target back on Jan 3 [see: AAPL Cracks the Market.]In the process, it has completed a bullish Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern — which it has, so far, declined to take advantage of.  This is a very interesting development, as the stock has rarely failed to capitalize on such patterns in the past.

    As we’ve documented over the years, AAPL is a veritable poster child for pattern manipulation [see: Engineering AAPL’s Breakout.]  The primary tool has been the buyback, which begs the question: will the current overhead resistance fall victim, or is there something more bearish at play?

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jan 29, 2019

    ES and SPX nailed our downside targets yesterday, backtesting their necklines yet again.  This time, however, they also backtested the channels from which they broke out last week.They had help from CL and RB, which also nailed our downside target before bouncing nicely.With the FOMC meeting wrapping up tomorrow, we’ll take a look at the likely next steps.

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  • Are Earnings Suddenly Mattering?

    Judging from CAT’s results, yes.  Despite a $10 billion buyback plan and timely positive guidance, the stock has been beat up pretty badly this past year.  The latest results add insult to injury.The S&P futures are currently off around 24 points in sympathy.  But, at least half of that came before CAT’s results.  So, there’s something else going on besides earnings.continued for members(more…)

  • Manipulation is Nothing New

    Yesterday, former SEC attorney Teresa Goody joined those calling for an investigation into the market action on December 24.

    It was hardly the biggest move we’ve seen over the past year. But, it resulted in new lows that ruffled a few feathers.

    Click the image to watch the interview, or just keep reading.

    Goody: …when you have these wide swings in the market, 400, 500, 600 points, 2 to 3 percent, I think that’s a clear indication that there is some sort of a market structure issue, so the SEC will have to investigate, I think, and also FSOC look into why there’s this volatility because it’s not fair to everyday investors, it’s not fair to all investors, really. And it really goes to the fair and efficient markets that we have.

    Melissa Lee and Kelly Evans of CNBC could have left it there. But, to my surprise and to their great credit, they challenged Goody’s statement — eliciting a nonsensical stream-of-consciousness response that rivaled one of the best deer-in-headlights word salads ever.

    Lee: Would, [by] the same token, the SEC investigate big up days?

    Goody: [long pause] I think that big up days are a little different from down days…

    Lee: Why? Doesn’t that speak to market structure as well? If you have the same circumstances that lead to a rise in the Dow of 3% on thin volume, why wouldn’t you investigate that?  If it’s really on the basis of market structural issues, why wouldn’t you investigate that?

    Goody: Well, for one thing, it’s about market loss and investor loss.  And, so, while I think that that’s important to look at too, it’s more important to look at the loss because you have things like the high frequency traders, for example, and, so, once there’s a massive sell off, you have the ability for people in the market like high frequency traders to get out early. And, then, once the market starts coming around, to come up and buy in low, so they sell high buy low.  And, then, the average investor is going to act less quickly than the high frequency trader for example, and they’re going to lose money. And, then, with this volatility everyday investors are very confused by that. They hear “oh Apple’s doing very poorly, or Apple’s doing very well and so maybe I should buy or sell.”  And, the average investor is going to act more quickly to, uh, minimize loss than they are to get a gain.

    Evans: Teresa, I don’t quite follow that.  If they’re front running, they’re front running. Whether they’re shorting or they’re on the long side, either way if you’re front running the public, and that’s a market structure issue, we talked about this a couple of years ago…it’s one thing for investors to…lose money, as you said, but if you also can’t buy something because it’s artificially moved up 10%, you’ve also lost out. So, it’s gotta go both ways or it doesn’t hold water, right?

    Goody: I agree with you.  And, I think that the bigger concern is when investors are losing a lot of money. But, I completely agree that there’s also an issue when investors can’t get in because it’s artificially high.  And, this goes to your point, too, is that what we’re trying to find is the real valuation.  So, anything that negates the integrity of the real valuation of a stock is something that has an impact on the market integrity and the market structure. And, so I agree, it’s big ups and big downs.

    But the SEC and, I think regulators, is more concerned with everyday investors losing a lot of money rather than not being able to get money and the gains because there’s more of an impact there, especially when its 500 or 600 points decrease.  But, I think they need to look into both and this way, also, when you’re looking at a decline, whether there’s front running, whether you know, some traders are able to sell high and start a sell off, and anticipate a big sell or a big purchase, and then they can get in front of that too, so those are issues where you can get more of the manipulation and the fraud.

    On that holiday-shortened trading day, the S&P 500 opened down 16 points and closed down 49 points. It’s highlighted in blue in the chart below.I couldn’t agree more that an investigation is warranted.  In fact, it’s high time the SEC investigate the rampant market manipulation that occurs on a regular basis.  Let’s start, though, with the much more frequent instances where the manipulation results in huge gains in the markets.

    On the 24th, members will remember, Mnuchin called in the Plunge Protection Team — which aptly manipulated markets into a sharp recovery by crushing VIX to the tune of 50%.This is a common occurrence as we saw again last night.  After five sessions of declines, ES broke out overnight and is currently showing a 25-pt gain.The primary reason?  Again, VIX — which was slammed by over 5% overnight and 23% since Wednesday.By all means, let’s investigate market manipulation.  But, if we really care about market integrity, let’s investigate those manipulating it in both directions.

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  • Miles and Miles

    According to Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, the U.S. and China are “miles and miles” away from resolving their trade war.  Moments later, Mario Draghi declared that “significant stimulus remains essential” and that risks are to the downside.

    The twin salvos sent the futures back to flat as we approach the open, despite the support they’re getting from VIX and the dollar. Yesterday, we got the lower low we were expecting.  Can SPX pick up the SMA10 tag as well?  And, might this be the early stages of a rollover?

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  • Backtest Accomplished

    Members, remember to request access to @pebbletrades if you’d like intraday notices of important updates.  Only about 20% of you are currently signed up, and I’d like to use it more often to signal when important target tags or changes to a forecast occur. If your identity isn’t discernible from your Twitter handle, drop us a line so we’ll know to approve you.

     *  *  *

    SPX/ES backtested their necklines in dramatic fashion yesterday.  As we discussed, they had their choice of a gentle sloping path (which stretched to Wednesday or Thursday) or a sharp plunge.

    SPX opend off 13 points and never looked back.  The losses accelerated until it reached our downside target and VIX reached our 21 target — also a backtest.

    The swift recovery in the closing hour and the overnight ramp job send the message that the worst is over for now.  But, of course, we’ll want to see some follow through for confirmation.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jan 22, 2019

    Will we finally get a backtest of the neckline?  With futures currently off 18 points, it’s certainly looking that way.

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  • OPEX Friday

    Algos took off following yesterday’s “news” that a China tariff deal was in the works, ignoring the admission shortly thereafter that the news was, indeed fake.  Why no repercussions? Simple.  By then, ES had topped the H&S neckline — stopping out shorts who then piled in on the long side.

    VIX’s ongoing smackdown didn’t hurt either.  It continues this morning, along with rises in oil, gas, and USDJPY. continued for members(more…)