With the future of the human race at stake (ok, maybe just a few percent off the S&P 500) Congress will probably give us their usual “they gave us no choice” solution (not) sometime after the deadline. That doesn’t mean they will resolve anything (why start now?) and it certainly doesn’t mean the market will … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: September 2013
After 18 cities in 10 days, it’ll be great to see my family and sleep in my own bed again. Still, I’ve really enjoyed touring the country and meeting so many interesting, intelligent and gracious people. Thank you all for taking the time to sit down with me, share your thoughts, inspire me (and, feed … continue reading →
In NY for the day, then on to Chicago tomorrow. If you haven’t yet RSVP’d, tempus fugit. The most up-to-date schedule can be found HERE. Click HERE to contact me. * * * * * While the rising red channel gave up the ghost after tagging the 1.272 we discussed last week, the potential remains … continue reading →
The last time we did any heavy lifting on bonds was back on March 7, when it seemed to us that prices had topped out and yields had bottomed. ZN had broken down from a rising wedge and was meandering towards the bottom of a long-term rising channel. We saw more downside ahead, but wondered … continue reading →
The Market The markets are a little skittish today. The current rising channel is currently broken, but only just below the .886 of the previous high. What matters is where it closes. Anything around 1700+ is helpful to the bulls; 1702.60 would be even better. Note the placement of the TL from 1994/2002. The USDJPY … continue reading →
Greetings from Philadelphia. Still on the road… will update the schedule for next week this afternoon. * * * ES’s rising channel is intact at these levels, but it’s important that it hold here. A failure to remain above 1707 would open the door to 1666 or lower. The more important development is the dollar, … continue reading →
Greetings from Houston. I’m still on the road, but wanted to toss out some thoughts. The Bat Pattern that completed yesterday is holding, with no breakdown or break through the prior highs. SPX sitting tight at 1700. That’s about to change, of course. The key level on the upside is SPX 1710 (ES 1705.) … continue reading →
I’m traveling this week and next, so won’t be posting intra-day. But, hopefully this big Bat Pattern completion hasn’t escaped anyone’s notice. I’m shorting here at SPX 1704.89/ES 1698.25, with stops just above the previous tops (1709.67 and 1705 respectively.) Initial objective for each is its .786, with a secondary objective at the .618s. UPDATE: … continue reading →
As mentioned last week, I will be out most of this week and next, visiting pebblewriter.com members across the country. We’ll talk about the markets and how to make sense of all the scribbles on our charts. I’ll also answer any questions you have about our Fund scheduled to launch Oct 1. BTW, I sent … continue reading →
July 2013 was our second best month since inception: 15.96% versus 5.08% for the S&P 500. This brings ytd 2013 to 92.95% (18.67% for the S&P 500) and the average monthly return to 11.95%. As expected, we didn’t repeat last month’s 26%; but, July helps answer the question of whether our strategy can succeed in … continue reading →