I love this old Sherlock Holmes expression (borrowed from Shakespeare’s Henry V.) It perfectly captures the excitement of seeing a forecast begin to come together. Although I’ll admit that, on the face of it, it makes just as much sense as “non-stop flights” and “your door is a jar.”
These are the early stages, of course, and things can come unhinged anywhere along the way. Murphy is patiently awaiting his cue.
We are nearing the lower end of our target range as detailed yesterday [see: A New Old Analog.] We should get a pause at the new channel mid-line around 1428, but we’re looking for higher than the .382 Fib.
I’m working today on cleaning up the analog charts posted over the past few days. My trading platform (TOS) seems to be back to normal (haven’t had to reboot anything since starting around 5am — yay!) So, look for a bunch of charts over the next couple of hours — including currencies and other major indices — that reflect the path I expect for the remainder of the year.
As I’ve posted before, analogs can be extraordinarily profitable when they come together. But, they require a certain degree of faith (and a well-designed escape hatch for those that fail.) From time to time, I make myself go back and re-read a post I truly hated writing: Lessons Learned.
In it, I detail the amount of money that second-guessing my own forecast cost me in the summer of 2011. Don’t get me wrong; June-August was a very profitable period. But, my returns would have been about twice what I experienced had I been able to ignore those nagging doubts.
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