Since our last post, UKX did reach our 590.04 Bat Pattern target, slightly exceeding it and an important fan line from October 2007 by 3.22 before dropping 3.2% since the middle of September. But, the correction is likely over — for now. Why? Like US equities indices, the FTSE has been in a long-term channel … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: September 2012
pebblewriter.com just wrapped the 3rd quarter at the top of its class. Investors who bought SPX at called bottoms and sold at called tops would have earned over 27% (66.57% since inception last March.) For details, click here. Annual membership rates are going up by $100 on October 3. But, the next 30 annual members … continue reading →
UPDATED: September 28, 2012 We’re up 66.57% since inception on March 22 — a little over six months. A competing “buy and hold” portfolio would have earned about 3.44%. I guess we’re still earning our keep. Now that we have the QE3 question behind us, directional trading is back on the table. Personally, I won’t … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: The dollar’s rising wedge played out perfectly, but after the close. We got a channel tag as expected, and are lurking in the bottom part of the channel. EURUSD’s falling wedge, in the meantime, also played out perfectly — but after the close. SPX is selling off this morning, but should find … continue reading →
We got the sell-off in the dollar and the bump in the EURUSD we were expecting at the end of the day yesterday. It produced a nice pop in equities on the opening. The burning question now is whether the rally can be sustained in the face of an truly awful durable goods report or … continue reading →
We reached our initial target of 1444 [from Sep 18] yesterday, a nice 30-pt gain since shorting SPX at 1474 on Sep 14. Those who played the bumps as we saw them worked a little harder, but were rewarded with more than twice the return — hauling in about 75 points for a pretty cool … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 9:00 AM EURUSD running out of steam… Would love to short around 1.2971. DX finding support for continued push higher…stands a very good chance of breaking out of the channel today or tomorrow… I’m an aggressive buyer at 79.33. e-minis hitting resistance… Fading this rally unless we break out of the triangle… currently … continue reading →
The rising wedge we were watching Friday broke overnight and has carried into this morning’s session, with an initial drop to 1452.06. This completed a Bat Pattern at the .886 retracement of the 1474 to 1449 drop (also a small Crab Pattern.) We should thus get a sizable bounce from 1452 — probably at least … continue reading →
VIX looks to have completed another falling wedge, falling to 13.51 on Sep 14 — versus the Aug 17 low of 13.3 and the Mar 16 low of 13.66. The 5-year red, dashed TL is currently around 13.24, but there is no evidence that the TL will be tested again this go ’round. One note … continue reading →
In the last major update I posted on the dollar [see: Update – July 17, 2012], I argued that DX had pretty much run its course at 83.255 and would be heading down to tag the bottom of one of two channels it had been tracking: a steep purple channel at around 81 or the … continue reading →