3rd Quarter Results

UPDATED:  September 28, 2012

We’re up 66.57% since inception on March 22 — a little over six months.   A competing “buy and hold” portfolio would have earned about 3.44%.  I guess we’re still earning our keep.

Now that we have the QE3 question behind us, directional trading is back on the table.  Personally, I won’t miss the scalping and day trading.  Although we managed to earn 5.39% in August, and 11.93% in September, it was very labor intensive and did not lend itself to sound sleep. We can now (hopefully) get back to our evil plan to calmly out-earn the earnest and outwit the witless.

Q3 official results are in:  + 27.61% versus Q2’s 38.46% and the S&P 500’s 5.6%.   We didn’t have the benefit of an analog this time; but, we did have all the lovely uncertainty surrounding QE3 and ESM.  With those milestones under our belt, how difficult could the Fiscal Cliff and the presidential election be?

I’ll post mutual fund and hedge fund universe results as soon as they’re available, but I’m not aware of any actively managed fund that has earned 66% in the past six months.  Best of all, we did it in a broadly diversified portfolio (long or short the S&P 500), with no options or futures, no leverage and without hitching our fortunes to the iPhone.

As always, thanks for your support.  I don’t say it nearly often enough, but I appreciate the faith you place in me to do this every day.  In celebration of another great quarter, we’ll run a membership special this weekend!  Keep an eye on these pages for details.


pebblewriter S&P 500
Mar (from 3/22) .50 .37
Apr 9.35 0.0
May 14.59 (6.27)
Jun 14.52 3.72
Jul 10.29 1.23
Aug 5.39 1.96
Sep  11.93  2.45

as of Sep 28, 2012

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

as of September 28, 2012

Inception to date:                  +66.57%

S&P 500:                                +3.44%

Differential:                            +63.13%

More details and important disclosures here.

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