The rising wedge is broken and ES is nearing our first target from yesterday.  Have we already topped out?

continued for members…

As discussed yesterday, SPX came within 8 points of our 1823 target — certainly close enough judging from past major Fib tags (Apr 2010, May 2011, Sep 2012.)

They never ring a bell to signal tops or bottoms, of course.  So, we’ll watch how SPX and ES react here at the .500 and potentially the .618 Fib levels.

The bullish case is a rally off the .618 to tag the rising wedge apex later this week.  December 5-6 has been a long-time potential time Fib target.

UPDATE:  10:05 AM

UPDATE:  11:53 AM

Just reached yesterday’s 1790 target.  What I posted yesterday still applies:

Could ES have already gone over the falls?  I see immediate potential to 1790ish.  If it does fall to that level, a big bounce will be required to get things back on track.

Because ES just tagged a .618 — not exactly a critical one — we can expect a further drop to a .786 (1782.63) or .886 (1778.83) after whatever bounce we might get here.

The falling red channel is a great fit, but it’s likely a corrective wave.  Two keys to watch: breaking out of the falling purple channel, and then breaking out of the falling red channel.  Obviously, breaking out of the purple channel will require popping back above the red midline.

I suspect the yellow H&S neckline will also come into play — possibly at the .618 retrace of the drop from 1812.50 around 1803.