Futures are currently off about 5 points as VIX, again, pokes its head up over 10.  This has been going on for the last 7 sessions or so.  Again, the question is whether it’ll last this time.  Overhead resistance awaits at 10.75.continued for members...

Interestingly, futures are off despite pretty strong speculative pops in both CL and RB.

And, DXY had its own pop – gapping higher to the SMA60 10.As USDJPY continues to cling to its SMA200.ES has potential channel midline support, yet we’re still looking for a decent backtest in both it and SPX.  I still like 2490.87 for SPX, with 2475-2480, 2467 and 2463 being the next most important support levels. UPDATE:  11:03 AM

Finally!  We could get a bounce here, but I’d keep an eye on VIX, which is pushing up through resistance.  If it can take/hold 10.88, we’ll see lower lows.

UPDATE:  11:26 AM

VIX was rejected at the purple channel bottom, which is allowing SPX to push up through its SMA5 10 and purple channel midline.  Both SPX and ES have successfully completed enough of a backtest to be considered done. If it’s going to plumb lower, this would be a good turning point.  RB and CL have both hit overhead resistance.  Look for a reversal here, especially RB – which is overdue for a backtest at around 1.56.  CL should at least backtest its SMA200, currently at 49.60. UPDATE:  2:00 PM

A couple hours left, and we’re pretty much where we were two hours ago.  SPX is sitting at the white and purple midlines, with one backtest in the bag and another potential one in the wings.  Let me stress this could break either way.  We’ve certainly had more significant looking breakdowns give up after less support than this.

The difference between this one and those, of course, is the 2500 marker.  I imagine TPTB are pretty serious about it, and might be willing to go out of their way to hold that line.  If not, the usual decline after a 1.272 tag is the .618, which would take SPX down to 2463ish.  If the falling white channel expands to look more like the yellow one, we could reach it by Wednesday or Thursday (sooner if things keep escalating with RNK.)

VIX has backtested the purple channel again, even almost backtested the yellow channel bottom.  A push up through it and the SMA200 at 11.46 would be a pretty clear signal of lower prices to come.

I have to run out for a bit, so will update the charts again after the close.  GLTA.

EOD:  9:30 PM

Not much to be gleaned from the close.  VIX broke down as usual…except that it closed above 10 and SPX closed below 2500.  Who know?  Maybe our next downside targets are still in play. RB and CL are worrying, but we still have a cushion.  I’m inclined to let them play out at least until tomorrow.