Update on USDJPY: Aug 26, 2013

USDJPY completed a second white channel backtest and a second purple channel midline backtest and is clinging to support: the midline of a parallel channel (in grey below.)

The odds are probably 50:50 whether it drops to backtest the falling white channel it broke out of last Thursday in the 93.38 range or heads up to test the 99.94 high.

The rising white channel from last summer is finished; and, the harmonic picture is bearish.

But, the big yellow channel midline hasn’t been seriously threatened yet.  A surprise move to the upside would catch a lot of bears unprepared.  And, the 200 DMA, now at 94.24, is fast approaching. With SPX having recently punched through 1576, it’s important to the bulls that USDJPY hold its SMA200.

 

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