Update on NYA: Nov 20, 2014

NYA nearly completed a Bat Pattern a couple of days ago, coming within 6 points of the purple .886 at 10969.  While a reversal would seem to be a given, TPTB have been playing games lately.

First, they often bring an index just shy of a natural reversal point before easing off the gas.  By not quite touching the Fib level, it leaves open the possibility of another push higher.

Also, NYA has a history of playing along with whatever SPX and DJIA have going on — meaning it has no compunctions regarding the normal chart pattern rules.  We saw this in February, when the double top reversal couldn’t even reach the white .886 before screaming higher.

2014-11-20 NYA daily 1300

It happened again in August when the broken rising wedge was rejoined a few days later due to Fed chatter.  And, the only reversal of any note in the rally from 9886 was a very tiny one at the .786 — meaning, there is no harmonic argument for a Bat Pattern per se.

As a result, I’ll not consider the promise of a reversal impeachable until it actually happens.  NYA is back above the 1.00 Fib, and the white 1.272 is way up around 12,075.  Unless we get a USDJPY reversal in the 118-120 range, I’ll consider the target the purple 1.272 (11,440) around year end.

It can do so without even needing to retake the large, red rising wedge that broke down in September.

2014-11-20 NYA weekly 1300

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