The volatility we projected in our last EURUSD update has been muted by a continuing lack of correlation with other markets.  The ECB was so long in actually instituting its easing that the markets were able to significantly front-run it, rendering it fairly useless as a carry trade vehicle.

continued for members…

I’ve narrowed the flag pattern to better fit the lack of any real downside moves, which leaves both a higher low and higher high as the two alternative target prices.

EURUSD continues to be a poor predictor of equity prices.  The latest channel move is just as likely to tag the flag bottom as it is to rebound to the midline.