The Run For the Barn

Everybody who’s ever been on horseback knows this term.  Horses instinctively know when the ride is nearly over and they’re headed back to the barn for some oats and grooming. They get a sudden burst of energy that can catch their riders off guard.

The market undergoes a similar phenomenon most years.  Everything from performance figures to bonuses are tied to a successful end of the year run.  With November just around the corner, I think traders have picked up the scent.

It remains to be seen whether central bankers and their new ringleader (to be named Thursday) can get to the barn without any major trip-ups.

Gold reached the top of our downside target range on Friday, meaning the dollar’s run might be nearing an end.

We’ll update the dollar, USDJPY and oil/gas in today’s post and see if we can discern which path they’ll take over the next two months.

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