It’s Alive!

This morning is all about tech, with GOOGL, MSFT and AMZN all beating estimates — kinda like Q3, GDP, which improbably ignored two major hurricanes and came in at 3%.

Not known for questioning the veracity of official government data, S&P 500 futures are up 5.5 points.

As a result, ES has broken out of its latest minor falling failing channel and popped back above its SMA10.  The purple acceleration channel that dates back to Sep 11 is still alive.  I’ll be watching the USD and its reaction to gold, which is about to tag our downside target.  The dollar’s rise, and its impact on USDJPY, has been instrumental to stocks’ ongoing rally.

continued for members

I’ll also be watching RB, which is testing its Aug 31 highs and the top of the rising white channel.CL has a shot at backtesting the red TL as it tags its .886.  But, as we discussed last week, that backtest is looking less and less likely.

The EURUSD dropped through its SMA100 and is closing in on our next downside target.

DXY’s’ rise suggests a backtest of the purple midline and/or SMA200. But, if gold bounces at its SMA200, that hardly seems likely.  Chances are, one of them is going to surprise.  If GC were to drop through that dotted yellow TL (roughly 1264), it would be a pretty big failure of the breakout which occurred in August.  It might be worth taking a shot at a long position there, but there’s good potential for another $4-5 downside if it decides to wait for the moving average to catch up.Meanwhile, VIX is back below its yellow channel bottom (11.4) and SMA200 (11.22), keeping equities on the upswing as long as it can remain so.UPDATE:  EOD

VIX is hammered by 13.27% (26.2% since Wednesday’s highs)… and SPX reaches new highs.  Mission accomplished.

 

GC got off to a good start off the yellow TL. But, as mentioned above, it still has downside potential to the SMA200.