The Pennant Race

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For the last month or so, we’ve been tracking USDJPY’s movement through (and beyond) the Pennant Pattern that set up following the Aug 24 plunge. 2015-10-05 USDJPY 60 0612 Yesterday, USDJPY confirmed its importance by racing to the top of the Pennant and sitting there for the next 4 hours.  SPX dutifully followed along, logging in its second biggest day since last week’s bottom as traders anticipated a big breakout.

But, they were disappointed. There was no breakout. SPX reached the highest of our three targets yesterday, but USDJPY — not so much.  So, we’re sitting here this morning at pretty much the same spot that we left off yesterday.  And, the only chart that really matters today is this one:Screen Shot 2015-10-06 at 6.38.06 AMIt’s the schedule of BoJ’s Monetary Policy Meetings.  If Kuroda, who is supposed to speak at 11pm, announces more easing, then the Pennant breaks out and the carry trade can go on to produce new highs.  If he doesn’t, then it’s back to the bottom — or lower — for more cellar dwelling, at least until the next meeting at the end of the month.

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