In a market where VIX’s every twitch can send stocks screaming higher (and, in the old days, lower) the most important chart is this one. A breakdown below the dashed line would be just as supportive for stocks as was the breakdown in late 2016.

A close second is this one, showing yesterday’s bearish (bullish for stocks) 10/20 cross.  Algos love these technical signals to go all in.WTI ranks 3rd only because higher inflation is finally being considered problematic. A breakout here would still have important implications for stocks.

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The bigger picture:

Still up in the air is whether we’re seeing a push up against the rising yellow channel top or an actual breakout. The afore-mentioned VIX situation should trump everything except for truly horrid data or black swan headlines. The purple line has been tested twice so far.

The CL situation is pregnant with possibilities.

As is RB.

And, don’t look now, but the dollar is spiking higher against the yen and euro. It has a long way to go in order to complete the flag pattern. But, remember, it still has a broken channel to backtest if the flag doesn’t yield additional downside (I don’t think it will.) The USDJPY is breaking out again, very supportive of stocks. And EURUSD is adding fuel to the fire – not at all a positive for stocks if it breaks down. Gold and silver are still waffling somewhat.

Bonds continue their very gentle ascent as rates continue to settle lower, approaching the red TL without the sudden jolt we once expected. And, last, BTC continues its slow slide toward our downside target – with its RSI failing to break out when it had the opportunity.