Another day, another overnight ramp job in the futures market.  They’re persistent, I’ll give them that.

Oil, which reversed at a logical spot yesterday, failing to hold its own Sunday night special, has rallied just enough to put ES back within striking distance of Sunday’s highs. Thus, SPX has a chance to reach or even top yesterday’s highs on the open — which is the whole idea.

continued for members…

The supporting characters…  ES is higher, but hasn’t reached Sunday’s highs.

VIX is constructing a triangle — typical behavior for the days before an FOMC decision.

While CL continues its ramping ways.  Though I’d have a hard time calling this a breakout.  In fact, it looks a lot more like a backtest of the overhead resistance posed by the white channel bottom after containment by the (albeit, rising) purple channel.

And, USDJPY, having reached a reversal point, is going sideways (with an upward tilt, of course.)

The outlook for SPX… Recall that, yesterday, it was prevented even from the extra 2-pt drop that would have enabled a tag on the rising purple channel bottom and SMA5 200.  It was finally allowed a tag of the channel bottom, but only after the channel had risen above the morning’s lows — i.e. a higher low.

With ES currently pegged at +8.50, SPX has a chance of topping yesterday’s high of 2264.03 on the open.

UPDATE: 9:40 AM

CL and USDJPY are looking weak… …and, VIX is breaking out……yet, ES continues to be whipped higher.  Looks like they’re trying to reach new highs for it and, of course, SPX. 

UPDATE:  9:45 AM

Running out of steam…?  Watch your stops.VIX says the party’s over.  

USDJPY is gearing up for at least a backtest of the little white channel that broke down this morning.  If it regains the white channel, we’ll know they’re serious about pushing SPX even higher.

And, CL is threatening to regain the broken yellow TL.  It’s par for the course for CL which seems to rally intraday almost every day and settle lower only during Japan’s trading hours.  Hmm…

Note the volume for ES, with the biggest spike coming at 9:40 when they were able to push it up to new highs.

UPDATE:  11:12 AM

USDJPY is breaking down a bit, though CL is still in bounce mode. Remember, API will deliver inventory data after the close.  VIX bounced off the SMA10/20, so should be on its way up again.  On balance, SPX is unsure what it should be doing.   Yes, they got it up to new highs, but there appears to be little to support it here.   I have to run a quick errand, will be back in 45 minutes or so.

UPDATE:  12:20 PM

USDJPY’s selloff was aborted, and it and CL are pushing back above resistance.  The algos are only to happy to follow along.  It appears SPX is destined for higher highs rather than a deep retrace of this morning’s ramp.  Traders who play along should use tight stops.

UPDATE:  2:05 PM

SPX has been riding the SMA5 10 and 20 for the past 3 1/2 hours.  Traders might wish to revert back to short here on any drop through the SMA5 20.

UPDATE:  3:44 PM

USDJPY and CL have given up on their ramping patterns, but now VIX is being hammered.  So, SPX is back to where we shorted — with the implication of higher prices to come.  I can’t help noticing that the SMA5 200 is about to cross the 1.618 at 2261.80.  I’ll set that as my new interim downside target.  As always, don’t hold short overnight unless you can hedge or handle the gap risk.

GLTA.