Futures have broken out on a new VIX “breakdown” and the runup in NVDA shares – now the 4th largest component of the S&P500.
This seems off to us, as Powell is likely to come out more hawkish than expected in his Jackson Hole comments.
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Futures are up 0.40% largely on bullish algo positioning…
…with VIX now down 13.4% since Friday’s 200-day moving average tag.
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Futures are up modestly in advance of the Jackson Hole symposium. 
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VIX’s constant slide has been one of the best indicators of the runaway bullishness over the past 10 months. Over the past week, however, it has soared to new highs, reaching our 200-day moving average target well ahead of schedule. 
What does it portend for equities?
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Futures are up modestly on stronger growth data and an approaching OPEX.
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We’ve stuck stubbornly to our forecast for the 10Y to reach 4.75 for nearly a year, betting that sticky inflation would force the Fed’s hand. We came within 6 bps of new highs this morning after retail sales soared 0.7% (expected 0.4%) in July.
Futures held on to their lows, though the pre-opening shenanigans haven’t yet begun (keep a close eye on DXY and VIX.) We don’t expect the bulls to give up SPX’s 50-day (4443.43) without a fight.
The challenge for bears now, as back in October 2022 when the 10Y tagged our 4.26 target [see: More OPEX Games] is that we’re up against OPEX (Friday.) Back then, it meant the 10Y’s channel collapsed and the next leg higher was postponed until after equities’ year-end run for the barn. If TPTB have their way, SPX’s 50-day backtest would be a springboard for a nice bounce.
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Futures are loitering around the 50-day SMA, leaving SPX’s tag still up in the air.
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Futures just tagged our 50-day SMA target, but need to drop another 20 points if SPX is to reach its.
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Futures are up moderately, primarily on the DXY stall and the usual overnight VIX smackdown. But, most attention will be focused on Thursday’s CPI print.
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Futures are up moderately on USD weakness. The EURUSD has backtested its recently broken red TL and its SMA10, sending the DXY back below a TL it was threatening to break above. This supports our thesis that the SMA200 is the most important target, but that the tag might wait until it reaches 1.087 or so.
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