pebblewriter

Tag: NYA

  • Brave New World?

    I updated the charts for NDX, NYA, DJIA, RUT and COMP in the past few days.  The picture is mixed at best, with RUT, for instance, looking quite overripe, and COMP looking like it’s seriously considering 3343.  The DJI is happy as a lark making new highs, while NDX is coming up on all kinds of resistance at 2834.

    I suspect they’re all taking their cues from SPX right now.  And, SPX is still intent on joining the new all-time high club at 1576.10.  I see no reason why it can’t reach it, though we went to cash over the 3-day weekend just in case.

    The world didn’t come to an end over the weekend, so I’ll stay cautiously long with tight stops during the trading day and hope SPX doesn’t close at 1576.08.

    UPDATE:  10:03 AM

    The ISM’s Mfg PMI just came out and it’s a stinker.  SPX just backtested the yellow TL and quickly caught itself.

    Employment growing faster, while new orders and production are off?  No problem there.

    The small red Crab Pattern targeting 1576.46 is very much intact, so I see no reason to panic now.  Eye on the prize, eye on the prize…

    UPDATE:  10:40 AM

    Pretty sure this is an effort to shake out the longs, but a drop through 1564 means 1555-1560 is in the cards, so I’m switching sides here.  Charts in a few…

    UPDATE:  10:50 AM

    Here’s the bulls’ short-term problem…though it’s not insurmountable.  Note the loss of momentum (white channel) on the 30-min RSI…

    …and 60-min RSI…

    The daily RSI also lost the purple .75 line and the bottom of the little red channel.  But, the .25 of the yellow channel dating back to the Nov bottom is right here around 1560 and could provide a floor.  If not, the white  midline is just below.

    We obviously have negative divergence on the daily chart, but that’s been going on since Jan 25.  It’s hard to ignore, however, the potential for the purple channel to take over from the yellow, and that could mean increased odds for downside here to the intersecting white/purple midlines at 55ish.

    From a price standpoint, SPX could find support at the white 1.618 of 1559.32, but the stronger support is at the .25 purple channel line at 1555-1556 — also the vicinity of the 1.618 extensions of the much larger Crab Patterns at 1553.39 and 1555.57.

    Bottom line, while the chop that began several weeks ago continues, SPX is growing technically stronger with these tiny little pullbacks that reset RSI.  It doesn’t mean we will top 1576, but it continues the theme of TPTB being very, very careful to lay all the necessary groundwork.

    The alternative, a sloppy, enthusiastic ramp like last September’s 2-day post QE3 rally to 1474, is less sustainable to be sure.

    UPDATE:  3:10 PM

    SPX got as low as the upper end of our target range from earlier, and has since melted back up to just below the 1564 trigger point.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Update on Everything: Jan 11, 2013

     

    Around the horn with major indices and currencies…  Like SPX, most are at a threshold where they must either break down or break out (I think “break down,” but we’ll know soon enough.)

    Coming up: VIX, RUT, COMP, NYA, NDX, DJIA, FTSE, SPX, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, CL, GC, SI.  And, yes, I’m happy to take requests — first come, first served after the above are done.

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    VIX

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  • Zweig Breadth Thrust

    Came close Friday, but didn’t happen.  A ZBT requires a move from .40 to .60 in 10 sessions or less.  Here’s a successful signal from Sep 2011:

    And, here’s where we ended up Friday — the 10th session from the .40 cross:

    Ditto for NYSE & DJIA too, BTW.

  • NYA Update – June 3, 2012

    The May 8 forecast for NYA was for the index to plunge from 7815 to 7340.  The forecast worked out well, as Friday’s low was 7286 (a quick 7% return, yay!)  As noted in that update, 7340 doesn’t really match up with any particular Fibonacci levels.  And, it doesn’t intersect with the rising wedge until early August (the highlighted oval.)

    I didn’t really see it taking that long to play out, and the market obliged for a change.  It also obliged by precisely tagging the fan line I had drawn off the Oct 2007 top (yellow, dashed) and one of the parallel horizontal channel lines (redrawn as red, dashed line E for emphasis.)

    We still haven’t landed exactly on a Fib level, so we either just overshot the .500 or haven’t yet reached the .618 target of  7145.  Deciding which it is presents some interesting questions.

    continued…

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  • Update on NYA: May 8, 2012

    UPDATE:  May 8, 2012

    NYA has completed its Head & Shoulders pattern, targeting 7340 on the downside.   The Mar 30 forecast has played out nicely, although it took a little longer than expected.

    My gut is that NYA will remain stalled between 8300-8450 and not complete the larger Bat pattern at 9679.  I suspect it will chew up the next two weeks or so, ranging from 8100-8450 before breaking down on the smaller rising wedge.

    NYA has also overlapped its October 2011 high, which has serious implications for the Elliott Wave picture, as waves 1 and 4 are not supposed to overlap.

    I’ll defer to folks who know much more than I about EW, but I believe this overlap strongly suggests the past seven months rise is a corrective, rather than impulsive, wave.

    The harmonic picture continues to be a bit obtuse, as has been the case with NYA.  The recent top completed (and overshot) a Gartley pattern.  But, 7340 is pretty much no-man’s land from a harmonic standpoint.  It’s about .500 of the Aug 2011 to Mar 2012 rise, and .707 of the Nov 2011 to Mar 2012 rise.

    It also intersects with the larger rising wedge/channel bound around the first week of August 2012, so we’ll put a pin in that time/date for now.

    Longer term, NYA appears to be tracing out a diamond pattern.  Whether it breaks up (continuation) or down (a top) remains to be seen.  But, the next move would seem to be to the lower bound of the pattern.

  • New Charts!

    Lots of updates posted here tonight:  SPX, DJI, VIX, COMP, NYA, NDX, DX and EURUSD.   Summary charts here, or check the index tabs under the MARKET tab in the MENU.  I’ll have the rest of the indices and the metals posted later today.

    Each of these will typically be updated at least weekly, while I usually rely on SPX, VIX and DX to tell the day-to-day and intra-day story.

    In general, I’m seeing an almost identical pattern setting up in each of these RSI charts — and it’s bearish.  Unless this is a masterful fakeout, the next move should be down — possibly the result of PMI manufacturing or construction spending data due out at 10:00AM EST.

    Good luck to all.