pebblewriter

Tag: invest

  • Update on COMP: Dec 7, 2018

    Don’t look now, but COMP is approaching our 6760 target.  As we discussed on Oct 10 [see: Plan B] COMP faced significant downside if its 200-DMA didn’t hold.

    Bottom line, it didn’t.  It was off as much as 13.3% last month before beginning a bounce that was destined to fail.  Next week, it will get another chance at tagging some meaningful support around 6760-6800 – depending on whether it happens Monday or later in the week.

    Members will recall we had two near misses on the 200-DMA in Feb and April, followed by a breakout that defied logic.  Now, two months after it broke down through the important moving average, COMP has been laid low.

    Can it hold here, or will AAPL’s continuing meltdown drag it even lower?

    My 144.48 target for AAPL remains unchanged since Nov 14, the day it broke below its SMA200 [see: When Push Comes to Shove.]  Then……and, now.

    Stay tuned.

  • AAPL Discovers Gravity

    A quick update on AAPL, which has reached two of our downside targets today…

    As we discussed prior to AAPL’s earnings report [see: All Eyes on AAPL] the stock had a gap to close and 200 DMA to backtest.  The danger in reaching both targets was that AAPL would have to descend below the triangle top above which it broke out in August [see: Focus on the FAANGs.]  But, as we discussed, this wouldn’t necessarily be all that alarming.

    A drop to 200 or so wouldn’t do much to dent bulls’ enthusiasm. Even a drop to the SMA200, currently at 192.17, could be passed off as a base-building exercise.

    It’s been almost two weeks since AAPL posted earnings, and it just reached its SMA200, (one day after closing the gap) posting a low today of 191.45 — an 18% drop from its Oct 3 highs.  Needless to say, some bulls are getting nervous.

    A quick glance at the weekly chart shows why.  If the rising red channel from 2016 doesn’t hold, it’s quite a ways to the first serious support down at the purple channel midline.  Maybe it’s time to expand the company’s stock repurchase plan.Don’t own any AAPL? Wondering why you should care?  Drops through AAPL’s 200-DMA have been a trap door to some big swoons for the overall market.

    With our yield curve model and oil/gas charts screaming “short!” I’d give better than even odds that AAPL’s channel and the overall market are headed lower.  If AAPL closes below its SMA200, I’d say it almost certain.Stay tuned.

    UPDATE:  Nov 14, 2018 – 3:45 PM

    AAPL closed below its SMA200 and its red channel is failing.  As we noted a couple of weeks ago, the nearest significant support is now the .618 Fib at 144.48. (more…)

  • One Way or Another

    After allowing a six-session slump (that saw SPX nail our downside target), The Powers That Be can be forgiven for insisting on an overnight ramp job.Last night, it was USDJPY pushing through horizontal resistance, VIX getting clobbered through three separate moving averages, and oil continuing a nice bounce off our 48.63 target.  It should be enough to get SPX up over its SMA10 on the opening bell.

    Since the bounce is mostly about oil’s “recovery,” we’ll focus today on what to expect over the next few weeks.

    Oh, and for those of you who clicked on this post expecting to get their Debbie Harry fix, HERE YOU GO.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • The Only Charts That Matter

    Note: Final 24 hours for our celebratory Membership Special.  Annual memberships, normally $1,750, are being offered for only $640.42, less than $2/day for daily forecasts and live, intraday market commentary geared to helping you avoid and even profit from the volatility we’re seeing.  For more details and to sign up, CLICK HERE. 

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    I sat down to update the CL and GC charts tonight, but quickly realized there’s no point until the following pattern is resolved.  How about it, central bankers?  Are you ready to let the markets run where they will?

    Because, ES’ Head & Shoulders Pattern below targets 1530 — another 17% lower.  For anyone keeping track, that’s a 28% drop from last May’s highs.  Today’s key level, 1837ish.  A close below here would be quite bearish.

    2016-01-19 ES wkly HSBTW, the only reason the above chart is where it is…?  This chart: the USDJPY — which has gone nowhere for the past 14 months.  It’s also perched on a precipice.

    2016-01-19 USDJPY daily HSPut them together, and the relationship is unmistakable.  Every time USDJPY dips to the bottom of the red channel (at the yellow arrows), ES takes a dive.  In fact, the dives have been deeper with each successive dip.

    2016-01-19 USDJPY v ESSPX completed its own H&S Pattern last week [see: Are You Happy?], but hasn’t been able to rebound because it was waiting on ES to arrive at its own line in the sand.

    So, come on, central bankers.  We’re curious.  Have you more tricks up your sleeves; or, are you finally ready to take the quotation marks off the “markets?”

    continued for members… (more…)