pebblewriter

Tag: interest rates

  • Inflation Rises

    August CPI came in hot, rising 0.1% in August instead of the consensus 0.1% decline. Core was even worse: 0.6% versus 0.3% consensus. The annual print also disappointed, coming in at 8.3% versus expectations of 8.0% or less.Having slightly overshot our 4153 target overnight, ES is now reversing sharply.continued for  members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 12, 2022

    Futures are up modestly on light volume algo action in advance of tomorrow’s CPI data.

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  • More VIX Games

    The algos were back at it yesterday, pumping stocks higher via VIX and the USDJPY.  Note that VIX dropped back to the TL which it broke below in August.

    This brought ES within striking distance of a backtest of its latest H&S Pattern just in time for next week’s CPI data to drop.continued for members… (more…)

  • The ECB Chooses Stagflation

    Futures are off moderately in the wake of the ECB’s decision to impose a 75 bps rate hike – its highest ever – on an economy already reeling from spiraling inflation and weakening economic activity.

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  • Backtest Complete

    Breakouts from well-established falling channels are usually followed by backtests of that channel. This is how bulls put all that nasty bearishness behind them, freeing stocks for another leg up. Except, it doesn’t always turn out that way.  Sure, ES nailed our backtest target. But will it follow through with a respectable bounce?

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 1, 2022

    Futures are off about 0.5% this morning as the economic data was somewhat better than expected.

    It’s an important juncture for the market, as USDJPY has reached our 139.43 target at the same time that ES is approaching our 3902 backtest target.

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  • Powell Lays it on the Line

    Markets finally got the message. Or, maybe Powell finally put it plainly enough: there will be more pain before the Fed eases.

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  • Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

    Powell threw cold water on the market’s optimistic outlook this morning, suggesting that aggressive tightening will continue.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 24, 2022

    Futures are flat after enjoying a modest overnight ramp.

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  • More Where That Came From

    Yesterday marked the second day in a row of sharp declines in the equity markets following the 200-day moving average backtest and the passing of OPEX.There’s more where that came from.

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