Breakout or Headfake?

Today’s post could be an extension of yesterdays, with more beneficiaries of the shutdown such as Target and Lowes reporting big beats.  Winners and losers. Curiously, ES failed to make a new high yesterday even thoughy SPX briefly rose above its February highs. You’ve always had to worry about predatory traders and specialists trying to … continue reading →

Winners and Losers

Watching WMT this morning and wondering what it all means?  After surging nearly 7% on blowout earnings, the stock has given up all its gains after the company’s commentary confirmed the obvious: there are winners and losers in a pandemic. Unlike many of its general retailer competitors…Walmart sells groceries, meaning they were allowed to remain … continue reading →

New Highs Inevitable?

The algos are still threatening new all-time highs, this time egged on by the “wonderful” news that only 963,000 new unemployment claims were filed last week and only 15.5 million Americans are currently drawing unemployment. It didn’t hurt that VIX made several sudden plunges in the past hour and that the USDJPY is threatening to … continue reading →

Crossing the Rubicon?

ES has reached the top of the falling white channel we added a couple of months ago.  At 76 points below all-time highs, a 2.2% move higher would make quite a statement about the integrity of the S&P 500 – essentially that a connection between equity prices and macroeconomic conditions is no longer a reality, … continue reading →

Thinking About…a Correction

Will the addition of another “thinking about” keep stocks aloft until the next FOMC meeting?  Futures aren’t looking so hot, perhaps because WTI has now joined RBOB in breaking trend, 10Y yields have gapped lower, and VIX broke out of its falling wedge. The algos are not happy. continued for members… … continue reading →

Currencies: A Turning Point

Lots going on this morning, with currencies joining VIX in leading the equity circus. EURUSD smashed its March highs and is closing in on one of two levels of overhead resistance as DXY tests an important channel bottom. The next moves for each will have important implications for the economy and for algo-driven equities. ES … continue reading →

Shades of 2015

SPX reached our Fibonacci .886 retracement target yesterday. It’s a level I never imagined seeing after stocks reached important support back on March 23. But, then, I never imagined $5 trillion in liquidity  – equal to the nation’s Q2 economic output according to the Atlanta Fed – being pumped into the economy in the second … continue reading →

Frontrunning the Fed

Ultra low interest rates don’t do much for traditional banking earnings, but they’re pretty fantastic for highly leveraged banks such as Goldman that are only too happy to front run the tsunami of Fed liquidity injections. Between GS and more positive vaccine news (Moderna) the futures have pushed to higher highs, settling the question as … continue reading →