Our Analog: Then and Now

Futures have been all over the map this weekend following the breakdown of the small white flag pattern on Friday.  But, the key factor is that VIX is higher and should experience a golden cross as we approach PPI tomorrow and CPI on Thursday. Our downside targets remain unchanged with SPX now within a few … continue reading →

A Jobs Report That Matters

The thinking goes like this: a strong jobs report is bearish for stocks because it might delay the Fed’s eventual pivot; while, a weak report would be bullish because it might accelerate the Fed’s pivot. The futures are on the fence, but not for long. continued for members… … continue reading →

All Eyes on OPEC+

If the enemy of my enemy is my friend, is the friend of my enemy my enemy? The relationship between the US and the Saudis has been through plenty of ups and downs, but it’s been years since it was as fraught as it is now. The West is trying to put the screws to … continue reading →

VIX: Not a Coincidence

When COMP bounced at 10,572.33 on Friday, a mere 7.19 above its June 16 lows, it might have struck some as a coincidence.  It wasn’t. It was a well-coordinated effort to ensure that new lows were avoided – at least for the time being.The usual culprit: VIX.  For the 6th session in a row and … continue reading →

(The Latest) Moment of Truth

As we’ve discussed several times over the past month, VIX’s trend line from Jan 24 was overdue for a revisit. Now that we’ve got it, will VIX nosedive as usual or are we in for something decidedly less bullish? The algos are geared up for a bounce. continued for members… … continue reading →

VIX at a Crossroads

For months, VIX has facilitated higher equity prices – plumbing new lows, breaking down, refusing to rise in cases of obvious market distress. Today, it reached a trend line off the previous highs, all of which corresponded with sizeable bounces in the equity markets. It’s an extremely important test for bulls. continued for members… … continue reading →

Fed Meeting on Deck

It’s unusual for stocks to sell off in the lead up to an FOMC meeting. Its also unusual for a bearish pattern such as a Head and Shoulders pattern to complete during those days.  Yet, here we are. As has been the case since late August, the only thing preventing a severe downturn (aside from … continue reading →