The dollar index has cleared an important hurdle to higher prices. Note RSI has broken above and is back-testing the red channel on the daily chart. Of course, it’s not a back-test until it reverses and stays higher. The first key level to confirm a breakout are the Jan 4 80.995 high — at which … continue reading →
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It was worth watching the SOTU last night just to see Boehner’s contortions, trying to scowl in a dignified, statesman-like way. Nothing much new in the speech or the response. More interesting was Mitch McConnell’s comment on CNBC last night that the sequester will go into effect. I don’t know any reputable economist who believes … continue reading →
ECRI’s Weekly Leading Indicator (WLI) came out Friday at 130.2 — up from 129.6 the week before. Further, they reported that the index’s annualized growth rate increased from 8.2 the previous week to 8.9% — the highest since May 2010. I wondered: are they retracting their Sep 2011 recession forecast? Are things really getting better? … continue reading →
Will the sixth try be the charm? SPX has futzed around in our target area for six sessions in a row. Today, we should finally get some satisfaction. The dollar has broken out of and is back-testing the yellow triangle. Lots of juicy Fib levels ahead, starting with the cluster at 80.758-80.883. RSI appears poised … continue reading →
Nice little intra-day sell-off again yesterday, culminating in a last minute positive close — another shake-and-bake by your friendly neighborhood market makers to separate you from your hard-earned money. Look for more of the same today. Today’s news is all about currencies. Draghi’s comments are successfully taking some of the bloom off euro’s today. The … continue reading →
The US dollar bounced off the .886 of its Sep – Nov 2012 run…again. This is the fourth time it has found support in the 78.725 – 79 range, though each subsequent bounce has been lower than the previous one. The result is a descending triangle that arrives at the bottom of an uptrend (the … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 9:15 AM E-mini futures are up big overnight, but have yet to exceed Wednesday’s high. A positive revision in BLS’s Nov and Dec employment numbers makes 2012 look better than it did, but I’m not sure how it helps today’s 12.3 million unemployed or 8 million underemployed or 2.4 million marginally attached… … continue reading →
Currencies are relatively quiet this morning in the midst of a slew of earnings and economic data. The dollar looks like it could hit our downside target of 79.50 – 79.59 from Jan 25 [see: Update on DX] this morning if the yellow channel holds, but note that its midline intersects with the bottom of … continue reading →
The first of a two-part article on harmonics trading strategies. Part 1. January 28, 2013 Harmonics are a great source of information about the market, but they don’t tell you how or when to trade any more than do MACD crosses or breadth indicators. So, how do you use them? This discussion of the basic … continue reading →
First, an important caveat: I’m not a bond guy. Never have been, never will be — at least with long bonds under 8%. I find the idea of sinking even one dollar into a security (on credit watch, mind you) that guarantees less than 2% for 10 years ridiculous. But, different strokes and all that. … continue reading →