If the US facing stagflation?  Or, maybe it’s already there.  Like artificially low interest rates and all-time highs in the stock market, the official economic data isn’t exactly alarming.  But, where’s the growth?  Where’s the spending?  Maybe, just maybe, the official data doesn’t paint a very accurate picture.

It doesn’t take an economist to see that, at this rate, GDP growth will be negative in the second quarter.

Personal spending has essentially fallen off a cliff.

The official unemployment rate might be below 5%, but seems to have reached a long-term floor.  Of course, it’s been redefined over the years.  Without those changes, the actual numbers are much more troubling.And, aside from a slight decline last month when the YoY increase in oil prices moderated, inflation is clearly on the rise.

Like unemployment, the way that official inflation data is collected/reported has changed drastically over the years.  The actual picture explains why consumer spending is MIA.

If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck…

continued for members...SPX broke out from the large yellow channel in February.  The breakout failed on Mar 27 and again from Apr 12-21.  It broke out again this past Monday (on a 37% hammering of VIX.) The dollar should be under pressure today, as the odds of additional rate hikes this year continue to fall.  This should make additional ramps by USDJPY more difficult. And, it should put additional pressure on CL, which is bouncing again on the white channel bottom.  A failure to hold 48 means another leg down.  But, for now, it’s helping prop up stocks……with VIX’s help.UPDATE:  10:13 AM

The initial pop has faded, and SPX has tested the neckline twice so far.  By my count, that makes 8 tags on this neckline since SPX first cleared it on Tuesday.  A drop to 2370 would still make gobs of sense.  The question is whether or not it’ll be allowed to happen today, the last day of the month.

If so, I continue to expect a drop to there sometime soon, with a further drop to 2361ish possible (but, more likely on Monday.)

If VIX gets its way, we’re in for a fourth day of going nowhere.  It’s ludicrous, of course, as the prospect of a gov’t shutdown, the Korean situation and the dismal economic data should have sent it to 18+.  But, that’s the world we live in.

As I mentioned yesterday, I have to be out of the office today.  This will be my last update, though I hope to get a chance to post some oil updates I’ve been working on.

GLTA.