If the US facing stagflation?  Or, maybe it’s already there.  Like artificially low interest rates and all-time highs in the stock market, the official economic data isn’t exactly alarming.  But, where’s the growth?  Where’s the spending?  Maybe, just maybe, the official data doesn’t paint a very accurate picture.

It doesn’t take an economist to see that, at this rate, GDP growth will be negative in the second quarter.

Personal spending has essentially fallen off a cliff.

The official unemployment rate might be below 5%, but seems to have reached a long-term floor.  Of course, it’s been redefined over the years.  Without those changes, the actual numbers are much more troubling.And, aside from a slight decline last month when the YoY increase in oil prices moderated, inflation is clearly on the rise.

Like unemployment, the way that official inflation data is collected/reported has changed drastically over the years.  The actual picture explains why consumer spending is MIA.

If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck…

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