Charts I’m Watching: May 1, 2017

Lots of charts to get to today.  I spent the weekend looking at currencies, and will be posting updates on each over the next few hours.

Futures are currently up 5 points, which is largely a function of a continuing increase in USDJPY and the 32nd instance of VIX dipping or, in this case, simply remaining below its long-term channel bottom since December.continued for membersCL continues to be propped up at its SMA200.While, USDJPY — which saw its red channel break down last week, has pushed higher.

The bulls’ goal is to bust the H&S without any further follow through.  The neckline is at about 2387.23.  So, as long as it remains above that, you’d want to be long.  Anything below that is likely headed for the white channel bottom, currently around 2377.86.  If that doesn’t hold, we have multiple backtest targets with my favorite being 2361.57.

ES suggests that a pop and drop might be in the cards.  So, for those who are sitting on the sidelines this morning, we’ll watch for a reversal for SPX at its SMA5 200 at 2388.18 to go with a reversal by ES at its red channel top.  It will be easy enough to see if it’s happening, as SPX will drop through support at the SMA5 200.

UPDATE:  9:33 AM

This is where it should happen if it’s going to.  I’d try a short position here with very tight stops.  The first goal is to get back below the SMA5 200.  The second is the neckline.  Next comes the purple channel midline at 2385.  From there on, the .707 at 2377.86 (H&S target is 2376.65) and the .618 at 2370.86.

UPDATE:  9:45 AM

TPTB just panicked a little with VIX, driving it down from 10.9 to 10.45 in a matter of seconds.  This shot across the bow is making bears think twice, and SPX is back above its SMA5 200.  Obviously, this was a backtest for VIX’s white channel, meaning it might not have any lasting effect if the rebound holds.  I’d continue to hold short, but let the SMA5 200 be your guide. With targets laid out pretty clearly for today, I’m going to take a quick break and then get started on those currency posts.