Say It Isn’t So!

When the Fed, which employs hundreds of economists and PhD’s says they don’t understand inflation, is there any hope left for humanity?

Come on, guys.  It’s pretty straightforward…wouldn’t you say?  On the one hand, there’s the fairly significant $14 trillion in financial assets you’ve bought up over the past few years.

Then, there’s basic commodities like oil and gas which are bid up to support stocks (but, have nasty side effects.)

Bottom line, there are plenty of charts that could help explain inflation if the Fed is really stumped. Or, maybe it’s just that Central Bankers, chock full of ex-Goldmanites, are more worried about charts like this one.continued for members

The above chart, with the secret sauce…CL is still hanging just above its SMA200 in a “show” of strength.  Remember, its YoY spike isn’t as much a problem as RB’s.

USDJPY is doing the same.  A big spike up to and above the SMA200 to make the algos happy.  But, the spike appears to be fading.

Same, boring targets for SPX:  upside to 2510.87 and downside to 2490.87.  Only, now, the purple channel midline is up to that level and the SMA10 is above it.  If I had to guess, I’d pick the 2490 tag as coming first.As usual, it’s very much up to VIX.UPDATE:  11:20 AM

The pause, facilitated by RB and USDJPY, should be over.  Timing looks like 3pm ET — if it’s allowed to happen.

Comments

2 responses to “Say It Isn’t So!”

  1. Tim Avatar
    Tim

    XLE looks like it’s up against major resistance. Put/call ratio is extremely low .20! This could be a good short entry for the next couple months.

    1. pebblewriter Avatar

      Could be… but I’d be a little concerned about it breaking through horizontal resistance at 67 (six sessions, now) and running up to tag the SMA200 at 68.89. From a channel standpoint, it’s broken out of and backtested the most obvious one. It’s overbought, but could get even more so as in Dec.