Futures have spent the last two days testing the 20-DMA, buoyed by the USDJPY slowly creeping higher but under pressure from rising vol.

The economic backdrop remains mixed, with GDP coming in at a very slight miss (2.1% vs 2.2% consensus) but durable goods orders missing badly (-0.5% vs 0.2 expected.) On a positive note, initial claims hit a new low at 199K vs 270K prior.

The day is young, however, as we still have personal spending, PCE, new home sales, Michigan sentiment and EIA crude inventories to digest later this morning and FOMC minutes at 2pm. The situation in Ukraine is also of great concern.

As everyone heads out for the holidays, remember to be safe. Though COVID cases are down in many parts of the world, we are reminded that 2021 deaths have topped 2020’s and the pandemic is in full bloom in Europe. If you haven’t received your booster yet, do it now instead of after infecting grandma. There is an excellent article in the NY Times about staying safe over Thanksgiving. Well worth a read. For members outside the US befuddled by our annual fascination with Pilgrims, devouring dry turkey and arguing with one’s brother-in-law, know that the real reason for celebrating is the arrival of Black Friday.

In a heart-warming rebound from their tryptophan-induced comas, Americans stampede to the mall where they trample over one another to get the best deal on a big-screen TV. It’s a tradition more in keeping with the Wampanoag’s experience than the Pilgrims’.

Happy holidays and safe travels everyone.

continued for members…

Lots of downside potential, but stocks are currently being propped up with volume in the doldrums.

Of concern to the bulls, VIX has made a higher high. Oil has backtested its SMA10 and SMA50 and should still test its SMA100.While, RB has backed off its SMA20 and is back below the 10, 20 and 50. USDJPY is edging higher, just enough (so far) to keep stocks from imploding.While the dollar continues to outperform the euro. I remain bearish on GC and SI and suspect that the Nov PCE data received this morning and Nov CPI due out on Dec 10 will mark cyclical peaks.

Will VIX win the battle over controlling the algos as usual?

GLTA.