RIP Volatility

If you saw this on an EKG, you’d call the time of death and wheel the patient down to the morgue.  The horizontal lines below are, from top to bottom, the 200, 100, 50, 20 and 10-day moving averages.  And, I can find no other time in VIX’s history when they were all arrayed in this order and this perfectly flat.But, this is VIX and these are the “markets.”  More importantly, the holidays and the end of the year have arrived.  And, the underlings lucky enough to be working today are under strict orders not to do anything that will screw up the S&P 500’s 20%+ gain for 2017.

ES has held the purple channel bottom again, RB has seemingly broken out of and backtested a falling channel, CL is defying fundamentals and threatening to break out, ditto for the USDJPY, and the euro has barely budged despite the Catalan crisis.

Sure, core durable goods and new orders dropped in November, and personal savings just hit a 10-yr low.  But, stocks are steady.  And, corporations just got a big Christmas bonus with which to buy back even more shares in the year ahead.  So, everything is peachy.

Despite the above, our targets remain unchanged for ES, SPX, VIX, RB, CL, DXY and EURUSD.  Our stances and forecast targets are listed on the current forecast page.