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Quick Review: Mar 17, 2016

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I’m traveling for the remainder of the week, so am not able to post intraday charts.  Here are a few, however, that should serve as quick, big picture references.

continued for members…

The one that jumps out the most is SPX itself, which broke out of what was already a steeply-rising channel.  2065 appears to be doable within the next day or two.2016-03-17 SPX daily CU 22002016-03-17 SPX daily 2200It’s a very bullish move and keeps SPX on track for our upside targets — probably even earlier than expected.2016-03-17SPX 60 2200Remarkably, it got there even as USDJPY was breaking down.2016-03-17 USDJPY daily 2200The close-up shows how close to a bottom USDJPY must be — meaning that when CL stops ramping stocks, USDJPY might be able to take over.

2016-03-17 USDJPY daily CU 2200 CL already reached our target range from Feb 18 and is edging higher — probably to tag the SMA200 at 42.70 (the chart is showing the wrong value for some reason.)  It could push through to tag the channel top at 43.80ish, but I think the odds favor the bears here.

Remember, the last time CL tagged the SMA200, it fell almost 50%!  A dip to the channel bottom or SMA50 would make sense.2016-03-17 CL 60 22002016-03-17 CL daily 2200Hopefully I’ll have a chance to post again tomorrow, but it’ll be touch and go.  GLTA.

Comments

4 responses to “Quick Review: Mar 17, 2016”

  1. pebblewriter Avatar
    pebblewriter

    43.97 for starters

    1. TommyYiu Avatar
      TommyYiu

      Thanks! From your old post, carry trade needs lower yen to push stocks higher. As yen is lower, crude oil is suppressed to “help” the Japanese citizens to absorb the impact of inflation of imported oil.

      Now crude is trending higher, would yen need to be higher instead? Otherwise, Japanese is facing a depreciating currency with rising oil. Double impact.

      So, as crude goes higher, yen may go higher instead. Then a higher yen could unwind the carry trade.
      That would hurt stocks.

      It is a complicated situation.

  2. TommyYiu Avatar
    TommyYiu

    “CL… top of white channel”, you mean at 43.97 or 47.35?

  3. annon Avatar
    annon

    I don’t know what’s going on here pebble, I’m not a member or subscriber, but I am able to see your members section on this post and others.
    I don’t want to freeload your paid content and work, if I can post this comment and you can see this, you might want to double-check your blog settings.

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