The market is pausing while the FOMC hashes out how much of a taper/rate increase they need to announce. Futures are generally flat, with factors increasingly pointing towards downside targets. How big a nosedive is VIX prepared to make?continued for members…

The big picture for stocks… The key to higher stock prices today will be VIX’s SMA10 at 15.93. Currencies are poised for a nice move, one way or the other……with the bears eyeing a EURUSD breakdown to the .618… …and a breakout for DXY.CL and RB are still on the bubble. Gold and silver are still waffling, with GC doing a better job at holding trend than SI at the moment. And BTC is shooting significantly higher, getting a boost up through its SMA10 and SMA20… …as they exhibit a bearish cross.Elsewhere in overpriced equities…

UPDATE:  3:53 PM

ES came within a point of our 1.272 extension target at 4628.24 and looks like it’ll close very close to the top of a rising wedge within a larger rising wedge. VIX holding its SMA10 bodes well for a reversal tomorrow. On the other hand, it also leaves markets well positioned for a breakout.