pebblewriter

Posts

  • Good News is Bad News

    We’ve been used to the bad news is good news meme for such a long time, it feels weird to even type that. That’s the reality, however, when investors are already counting the days till the Fed’s easing cycle and we get 528,000 new jobs instead of the 258,000 expected.

    The tightening might just have to last a little longer than the bulls have suggested.  Though, the efforts being made to lower oil prices are bound to start paying dividends in the longer run. CL reached our next downside target. Could this slide turn into something real? Could ES do something so drastic as drop below its 10-day moving average? Can VIX survive the usual 9:30 smackdown?

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 4, 2022

    Markets are flat following yesterday’s 1.5% move higher engineered by a stunning 12% VIX smackdown off Wednesday’s highs.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 3, 2022

    The VIX nonsense continues, ramping futures back above the SMA100 with the help of Jim Bullard, Fed president and occasional CNBC host, who insists there is no recession – just like he insisted inflation wouldn’t be a problem.

    Whether there is or not, the market will never reflect one as long as this kind of nonsense goes on.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Two More Backtests to Watch

    Futures are off modestly this morning as the 10Y approaches our next downside target: a backtest of both its decades old falling price channel and the rising channel from its 2020 lows.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 1, 2022

    Futures are off moderately following an algo-driven meltup in July that shook the bears and reset sentiment.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Push Comes to Shove

    Thanks to the ongoing assault on VIX, the bear rally from mid-June is on the brink of becoming an actual breakout. Bolstered by some key earnings beats and surprisingly dovish commentary from Powell, fundamental buyers can’t be faulted for being bullish.

    Or…it could just be a masterful headfake designed to wash out the massive downside bets which had legitimately accumulated earlier in the year – in which case, a sharp downdraft is just ahead after this morning’s data dump.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Jul 28, 2022

    Another Fed meeting, another VIX-driven algo meltup.

    But, something’s more than a little sketchy about this one – aside from the fact that the recession which Powell refused to acknowledge yesterday just got closer to being official.

    It might be shallow, but the 0.9% drop in Q2 (first estimate, vs +0.5% consensus) makes for two quarters in a row – the commonly accepted definition of a recession.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • FOMC Day: Jul 27, 2022

    Futures have ramped almost 1% overnight – a common occurrence lately, especially in advance of a Fed decision.

    Even the durable goods orders beat (a miss if you’re looking for the Fed to slow their rate hikes) did nothing to thwart the algo-driven meltup.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Holding the Line

    Can VIX be contained for another few days? If you want to know what’s going to happen in the market this week, that’s the critical question.

    As weak earnings reports and economic data have dribbled out over the past week, VIX has tested its 200-day moving average almost every day. Every time it comes close, it gets smacked back down. So far, those tasked with preventing another leg down in stocks have been able to hold the line.

    It’s how ES, directed by algos, climbed back above its 50-day moving average and managed to remain there. So far, at least.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Fast and Furious

    Between an FOMC meeting, consumer confidence, GDP, durable goods, PCE, consumer sentiment, new home sales and a slew of important earnings calls, this week promises to be one of the most important so far in 2022.

    Somewhere in all that data we should learn whether the economy is really in a recession (spoiler alert: it is.) The market’s response could be both fast and furious.

    Futures are up modestly but fading as we approach the open.continued for members… (more…)