pebblewriter

Posts

  • Charts I’m Watching: Mar 7, 2023

    Futures are up slightly as algos prepare for Powell’s testimony.

    You never know what he’s going to say, but stocks could really use a backtest at this point.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Mar 6, 2023

    Futures have slipped slightly higher in advance of the open, adding to Friday’s spasmodic meltup.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • An Eye on PMI

    Futures are up modestly in advance of the open.

    ISM Services PMI comes out at 10am ET.  Remember that January’s data blew the doors off expectations. A similar performance this morning could throw a big monkey wrench into the 25 bps rate hike scenario.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Waiting on the Dow

    It’s been over four months since the DJIA pushed up through its 200-day moving average. Aside from a couple of wobbles at that time, it has yet to backtest this important technical level.

    It got close yesterday, and would probably have accomplished it this morning if not for CRM‘s 16% surge.

    Once it happens, the other indices will need to make some quick decisions. SPX and COMP are both loitering on the wrong side of the 200-day tracks.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Mar 1, 2023

    Futures are off slightly this morning……perhaps in order to facilitate the Dow’s overdue backtest of its 200-day.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Update on Currencies: Feb 28, 2023

    Futures are holding a slim gain this morning with the assistance of both the EURUSD and USDJPY, which is just shy of our next upside target.

    As discussed yesterday, central bank currency games have been instrumental in equities ability to break out of the year-long downtrend. Can they keep it up?

    continued for members… (more…)

  • The Big Picture: Feb 27, 2023

    Last week completed the backtests we’d been expecting, with ES, SPX, COMP, DJIA and NKD all holding important technical support.While the fundamental picture might not justify these prices, the algos are satisfied. And, until price discovery reemerges (if it does), the algos are all that matter.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Feb 24, 2023

    Futures have dropped back through the 50-day moving average, putting the 200-day back in focus after yesterday’s near miss.

    We’re essentially in the same situation as yesterday except that we’re jumping off from a much lower level.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Feb 23, 2023

    Futures are getting a boost from the old pre-open VIX dump this morning.

    The question remains whether the various SMA200s are ready for a test.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Close Enough?

    ES reached the very top end of our initial downside target yesterday, about 6 points above the 50-day moving average and 361.8 Fib extension. It tagged both overnight, leaving traders to wonder whether or not the 200-day is still in the picture.

    There’s a very good chance that the release of FOMC minutes at 2pm ET will be the deciding factor.

    continued for members… (more…)