Futures are flat this morning as algos continue to follow the VIX suppression playbook.
With CPI and Fed minutes coming out tomorrow, PPI and initial claims on Thursday, and retail sales and Michigan sentiment on Friday, the remainder of the week is unlikely to be as quiescent.
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We’re finally getting the SMA10 backtest this morning.
Better late than never.
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The March jobs report came in at 236,000 versus 230,000 expected. Headline unemployment dipped slightly to 3.5%.
Futures bounced slightly on the back of algos which were focused on the nightly VIX meltdown.
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Job cuts rose to 228K (vs 200K expected) last week. It will officially register as a drop, however, as the previous week was revised from 198K to 246K. When viewed through the prism of new highs in bankruptcies and an earnings implosion… 
…it’s not too surprising that futures are drifting lower.
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March ADP payrolls came in at +145K versus +210K estimates, strengthening the stagflation/recession argument. 
Futures have drifted lower following yesterday’s sharp decline, suggesting at least a channel bottom/10-day SMA backtest. Keep an eye out for ISM services coming out at 10ET.
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After reaching our next upside target, futures have settled into a pause.
No surprise, as the algo factors are doing the same.
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It was touch and go on Friday as XLE pushed above its 200-day moving average and WTI smacked into its 50-day. Fortunately for oil bulls and inflation enthusiasts, OPEC+ was watching the same charts and took action.
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Futures are up modestly following the Feb PCE print: 0.3% monthly vs 0.4% expected and 5.0% annual versus 5.1% expected. Core came in at 0.3% and 4.6%.
In addition to inflation continuing to fall, the spread between headline and core continues to fall, reflecting an ongoing convergence.
Will it hold up next month, when the YoY gas price delta plunges to -19%, the lowest since Nov 2020 when CPI stood at 1.17%?
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This morning’s economic news came in pretty much on target: not too hot, not too cold.
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Futures are up nicely on a twofer: a not so subtle VIX breakdown… 
…and a very unsubtle NKD rescue (back above the SMA200 just in time for Q1) courtesy of the BoJ’s USDJPY meddling.
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