Futures are up modestly ahead of the open as traders look ahead to Powell’s congressional testimony and Thursday’s CPI print.

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As expected, ES has broken out above the trading range it’s been stuck in since June 17. continued for members… (more…)

Equity prices have been stuck in a tight range for over two weeks, struggling to top important Fibonacci resistance. Fortunately for bulls, another holiday has arrived.

SPX is within striking distance of our Jan 8 Inverted Head & Shoulders target [see: A Look Ahead at 2024.]

The most important chart pattern for SPX is the large Inverted H&S Pattern which completed on Dec 11.  It points to 5727 (a 24.5% rise from the neckline) and, if it’s to align with the large rising yellow channel, would reach its target in late June 2024.

Can stocks push through the current resistance? The answer lies not in the stock market, but the bond market.

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Futures are off moderately ahead of Jay Powell’s comments at an ECB forum in Portugal.

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The S&P500 soared 14.5% in the first half, easily beating the averages (since 1953) of 4.72%. Can the markets build on these gains, or are we due for some consolidation?

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Headline PCE came in on target at 2.6% YoY and 0.0% MoM. Core was a tad higher at 0.1% MoM, also on target. Futures reacted positively, but have given up some of their gains after running into an important Fib level again.

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Futures are up slightly as we head into a week of somewhat consequential economic data.

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Stocks continue to inch higher with algos leading the way amidst acceptable economic prints.

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Stocks have inched higher over the past two weeks, with algos ruling the roost as expected.

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Inflation continues to moderate as expected, with headline CPI coming in unchanged MoM and up 3.3% YoY versus 3.4% in April.  Core CPI as up 0.2% MoM and 3.4% YoY versus 3.6% in April.

Energy and shelter continue to drive the data, with energy diving 2% MoM (up 3.7% YoY) and shelter up another 0.4% MoM (up 5.4% YoY.) Services in general were up 5% YoY.

Bottom line, there was nothing in the data to dissuade the Fed from a September rate cut which, judging from the FOMC presser, is exactly what they will likely do.

Stocks reacted positively and remain on track with our forecast.

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