Yesterday’s melt-down was a good start on the Bat Pattern reversal, reaching the white .618 on its way to the cluster of moving averages we discussed yesterday and coming within 3 points of our downside target issued in Monday’s member section [see: Strange Brew]: Whether or not the rumor is true or the interview even … continue reading →
SPX has continued to sell off, if tentatively, since we called for a reversal after Monday’s Bat Pattern completion. But, it hasn’t yet left the comfort of the rising gray channel and is back above the purple channel midline. For now, the all-is-well meme is staying alive. Along the way, VIX revisited the yellow … continue reading →
SPX finally reached our yellow target yesterday, slipping just past 2127.59 and testing our resolve before reversing into the close. From yesterday’s member section: Recall that Thursday’s highs came up just short of a .886 tag, so it’s entirely possible that SPX will make it back to 2127.59. We’ll set that as our upside target … continue reading →
Combine one part meaningless press conference, one part unfounded rumor and two parts goal-seeking algos and you end up with a 19-pt ramp job overnight. The Greek situation remains volatile, though it seems pretty clear that deadlines will continue to be extended until TPTB can announce something they consider a “success.” Friday’s drop easily tagged … continue reading →
Yesterday’s forecast worked out reasonably well. From the member section: In the meantime, I can easily imagine a pseudo-breakout that reaches the white .786 or .886 (yellow dot) into the end of the week. The 26-pt spike took SPX to 2126.65, less than one point away from our yellow dot at the .886 Fib — … continue reading →
Yesterday morning, we titled our daily post with the rhetorical question: “has the Fed found its backbone?” After 7 years of currency, interest rate and stock market manipulation, is the Fed finally ready to let the “markets” find their own equilibrium and hazard even a 0.25% increase in interest rates? Apparently not. From the rearrangement … continue reading →
Central bankers everywhere are publicly conceding that their creations (aka “markets”) are overpriced. Yellen herself has uttered the “B word” on more than one occasion. So, it is with great curiosity that we approach another FOMC Jamboree that will either further inflate the myriad bubbles or seek to let just a little air out — … continue reading →
On June 10, in Did Kuroda Just Kill the Bull Market? we highlighted Bank of Japan head Haruhiko Kuroda’s surprising announcement to the Japanese parliament: “The yen is unlikely to weaken further in real effective terms if you think with common sense, given how far it has come.” After a massive (sarc) 3% slide in … continue reading →
It’s a small dose, to be sure, but this morning’s Empire Fed Survey is a reminder that not all is well in the land of ever-increasing stock prices.It’s adding to continuing Greece concerns and an unusual trifecta of faltering algo drivers. CL is in danger of losing the rising channel bottom (finally catching up to … continue reading →
“If you give a mouse a cookie, he’s going to ask for a glass of milk. When you give him the milk, he’ll probably ask you for a straw. When he’s finished, he’ll ask you for a napkin. Then he’ll want to look in a mirror to make sure he doesn’t have a milk mustache.” … continue reading →