Nothing fancy this morning…just a plain old ramp job. It hasn’t yet been supported by USDJPY or CL, but VIX continues to work its way lower — with multiple targets besides our 12.46.
It should be enough to break SPX out of its malaise. Though, there are a few bearish leaning indicators.
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CL is showing weakness and a continuation of the channel breakdown.
But, the white neckline of the discarded H&S isn’t far below — offering potential support.
While, USDJPY is going sideways in an effort to recast its own breakdown. 
This should leave SPX with initial resistance at about 2150, with a return to the white channel top at 2160 (also the SMA50) as a distinct possibility if it can gain some momentum. The white .886 is slightly higher at 2163.34 and the red 1.618 a little higher still at 2164.49.
Perhaps the most interesting chart on my monitors is ES, which has seen its rising white channel break down twice — and experience a Lazurus-like resurrection after each.
If it reaches 2160, we’ll be looking for a reversal at the top of the falling white channel that dates back to Aug 23. Whether it does or not will depend on CL and USDJPY (which just started ramping.)
If SPX reverses, then we’ll start looking for a drop back to either the white channel bottom or one of the rising white channel bottoms which have proven difficult to chart — perhaps another backtest of the May 2015 high of 2134.72.
UPDATE: 9:53 AM
A cleaned up 60-min chart for SPX shows the multiple upside targets:
- the red 1.272 at 2155.92
- the white .786 at 2157.86
- the SMA50 at 2160.3
- the white .886 at 2163.34
- the red 1.618 at 2164.49
It’s anyone’s guess, though the channel top seems to favor 2160-2162, depending on when it occurs. Since we had a significant reversal at the white .618 at 2148.64, I assume we’ll get at least a reaction at the white .786 at 2157.86.
The 5-min version shows we’re already within striking distance.
USDJPY — the market’s little helper — has reached overhead resistance at the white channel top. This could shift the burden back to VIX or CL, and likely means SPX will pause while the short term SMAs catch up.
And, a quick update on DB — the gift that keeps giving. It would appear to be running out of steam in the next 24 hours — perhaps to coincide with a reversal for SPX at 2160ish?
UPDATE: 12:30 PM
Long here at 2148.70. SPX has backtested the .618 and SMA20. For those looking to get long, this might be the best opportunity. Tight stops are advised, as CL — which just reached our initial downside target — might not be done.
It would look like more solid support if ES could backtest its SMA5 200 at 2141.63.
UPDATE: 2:34 PM
Quick update…things appear to be on track. I’m going to take a 20-30 minute break, so watch your stops. The key is the rising red channel.
UPDATE: 3:44 PM
For those holding long from earlier, know that there’s a decent chance that SPX will decline to close this morning’s gap (2142.63) either at the close or tomorrow on the open. 
If so, the red channel above could tilt to look more like the white one below.
VIX is looking a bit weak, here, so I’m not convinced it’ll happen. But, it’s worth hedging or pulling back your exposure if you’re not comfortable with the risk.
We’ll have Case-Schiller real estate data as well as API inventories coming out tomorrow, and today’s price action has obviously been pretty tenuous.
Exit point if not holding overnight: